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presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":49.5,"repVoteShare":50.5,"demMarginPct":-0.93,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":51.9,"repVoteShare":48.1,"demMarginPct":3.76,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2016,"demVoteShare":50.3,"repVoteShare":49.7,"demMarginPct":0.59,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2012,"demVoteShare":52,"repVoteShare":48.1,"demMarginPct":3.9,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2008,"demVoteShare":54.3,"repVoteShare":45.7,"demMarginPct":8.63,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2004,"demVoteShare":49,"repVoteShare":51,"demMarginPct":-2.03,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2000,"demVoteShare":49.9,"repVoteShare":50.1,"demMarginPct":-0.15,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"}],"politicsSummary":{"latestYear":2024,"latestMarginPct":-0.93,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},"related":[{"slug":"dutch","name":"Dutch","href":"/ancestry/dutch","relationship":"Same 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from the latest completed ancestry_vote_estimates run.","Release policy: public-release dossiers are indexed; experimental dossiers remain labeled and excluded from search indexing.","Interpretation: modeled political geography, not observed individual vote behavior."],"methodology":["Ancestry footprint metrics use ACS 2024 source columns mapped from the canonical ancestry taxonomy.","Public geography tables rank states and counties by share of total population reporting the ancestry.","State and national ancestry shares are weighted from county populations whenever a direct aggregate row is unavailable.","Political timelines use the latest completed ancestry model run and surface model version plus confidence labels directly.","Indexed public-release dossiers remain search-visible; experimental dossiers stay public in the atlas but noindex until promoted.","These pages describe modeled voting patterns, not direct measures of individual behavior."]}}