+0.0 pts / 4 years across the normalized cycle record; 0.2% volatility.
Congressional District (at Large) campaign intelligence report
Akashic campaign intelligence · campaign-intelligence-v1
Congressional District (at Large) campaign brief
Alaska · 2026 U.S. House · current district boundaries
Snapshot
ci-v1:cd:0200:34c8ffc17c9f8d99:20260821163256Generated from source state Aug 21, 202613 source recordsMatt Schultz leads reported receipts at $579.7k through Mar 31, 2026.
2024 candidate votes / CVAP. Read with the denominator and source notes below.
current cycle
Race, candidates & money
OfficeU.S. House
SeatAK-AL
PrimaryAug 18, 2026
GeneralNov 3, 2026
IncumbentNicholas Begich III (R)
Seat statusIncumbent-held
Race-spine priorR+13.2
Finance throughMar 31, 2026
2026 contest identity from the frozen forecast spine; candidate and federal finance figures come from the independently refreshed finance sidecar.
| Candidate | Party | Status | Raised | Spent | Cash | Outside + | Outside − |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schultz | Democratic | nominee | $579.7k | $231.4k | — | — | — |
| Nick Begich III incumbent | Republican | nominee | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bill Hill | Independent | nominee | — | — | — | — | — |
| John Williams | Democratic | candidate | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yaquelin Reynoso | Democratic | candidate | — | — | — | — | — |
structural vote
Electoral baseline, trend & volatility
State-relative structural baseline. Each district result is compared with the statewide result for the same contest; contests are averaged within cycle, then cycle means receive a four-year half-life. Positive values are Democratic-relative and negative values Republican-relative. This is not a win-probability forecast.
| Cycle | State-relative lean | Statewide contests | Recency weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | EVEN | 1 | 1.000 |
| 2020 | R+0.1 | 1 | 0.500 |
| 2016 | EVEN | 1 | 0.250 |
| 2004 | D+0.4 | 1 | 0.031 |
| 2000 | EVEN | 1 | 0.016 |
| 1996 | EVEN | 1 | 0.008 |
| 1992 | EVEN | 1 | 0.004 |
| 1988 | EVEN | 1 | 0.002 |
| 1984 | EVEN | 1 | 0.001 |
| 1980 | EVEN | 1 | 0.000 |
| 1976 | EVEN | 1 | 0.000 |
| 1972 | EVEN | 1 | 0.000 |
| 1968 | R+0.5 | 1 | 0.000 |
| 1964 | D+0.2 | 1 | 0.000 |
| 1960 | EVEN | 1 | 0.000 |
Show baseline components
| Contest | District | State | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+13.1 | R+13.1 | EVEN |
| 2020 President | R+10.1 | R+10.1 | R+0.1 |
| 2016 President | R+14.8 | R+14.8 | EVEN |
| 2004 President | R+25.5 | R+25.9 | D+0.4 |
reported & reaggregated results
Election history
| Election | All-vote margin | Votes | Measurement | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+13.1 | 338,177 | reaggregated | Akashic presidential election history |
| 2024 U.S. House | R+1.0 | 329,555 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2022 U.S. House | R+0.3 | 263,610 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2020 President | R+10.1 | 357,569 | reaggregated | Akashic presidential election history |
| 2020 U.S. House | R+9.1 | 353,165 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2018 U.S. House | R+6.6 | 282,166 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2016 President | R+14.8 | 318,265 | reaggregated | Akashic presidential election history |
| 2016 U.S. House | R+14.3 | 308,198 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2014 U.S. House | R+10.0 | 279,741 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2012 U.S. House | R+35.3 | 289,804 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2010 U.S. House | R+38.4 | 254,335 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2008 U.S. House | R+5.2 | 316,978 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2006 U.S. House | R+16.6 | 234,645 | legacy boundary | Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollups |
| 2004 President | R+25.5 | 312,598 | exact aggregate |
electorate
Registration & participation
| Year | CVAP | Registered | Ballots | Registered turnout | Ballots / CVAP | Candidate votes / CVAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 538,819 | — | — | — | — | 62.8% |
| 2020 | 532,556 | — | — | — | — | 67.1% |
| 2016 | 520,717 | — | — | — | — | 61.1% |
| 2004 | 445,327 | — | — | — | — | 70.2% |
| 2000 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1996 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1992 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1988 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1984 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1980 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1976 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1972 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1968 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1964 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1960 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Registered turnout and CVAP turnout proxy require a ballots-cast numerator. Where only candidate-vote totals exist, the report labels candidate-vote/CVAP explicitly and does not call it turnout.
constituency
Population profile
- Total population
- 735,706
- CVAP
- 538,819
- Median age
- 35.8
- Median household income
- $92.8k
- Poverty rate
- 10.1%
- Bachelor’s or higher
- 31.5%
ACS release 2024 5-year.
White57.7%
Black2.9%
Two or more races9.8%
Hispanic / Latino7.3%
Asian6.4%
Other16.0%
geography
District composition
- Aleutians West Census Areaallocation weight 100.0%
- Anchorage Municipalityallocation weight 100.0%
- Bethel Census Areaallocation weight 100.0%
- Bristol Bay Boroughallocation weight 100.0%
- Chugach Census Areaallocation weight 100.0%
- Copper River Census Areaallocation weight 100.0%
- Denali Boroughallocation weight 100.0%
- Dillingham Census Areaallocation weight 100.0%
- Fairbanks North Star Boroughallocation weight 100.0%
- Haines Boroughallocation weight 100.0%
- Hoonah-Angoon Census Areaallocation weight 100.0%
- Juneau City and Boroughallocation weight 100.0%
Cross-legislative overlap
Exact cross-legislative overlap has not been baked for this state. County co-occurrence is not substituted for population/CVAP/area intersection.
representation
Current officeholder
No current officeholder row is attached.
data contract
Coverage & limitations
District geographyFull
Current district boundary is baked.
ACS constituency profileFull
ACS release 2024 5-year.
As of 2024 5-yearCitizen voting-age populationFull
Current CVAP is attached to the district at read time.
Electoral historyFull
38 presidential observations plus 25 audited actual-race observations.
Same-office district historyFull
25 U.S. House results are available for this congressional district.
Voter registrationUnavailable
No district-level registration series is attached; missing values are not treated as zero.
Current-cycle contest and candidatesFull
2026 contest identity from the frozen forecast spine; candidate and federal finance figures come from the independently refreshed finance sidecar.
Campaign financeFull
At least one active candidate has published campaign-finance figures.
As of Mar 31, 2026Exact legislative crosswalksUnavailable
Exact population/CVAP district-to-district overlap is not substituted with county co-occurrence.
Legislative activityUnavailable
No current officeholder is attached to this district.
audit trail
Sources & methodology
Baseline
District all-party margin minus statewide all-party margin for the same presidential, U.S. Senate, or governor contest. Multiple statewide contests in a cycle are averaged; cycle means receive a four-year half-life. Trend is OLS slope per four years across cycle means; volatility is their population standard deviation.
Margins
Every percentage-point margin is Democratic votes minus Republican votes divided by all valid votes, including other candidates.
Participation
Registered turnout and CVAP turnout proxy require a ballots-cast numerator. Where only candidate-vote totals exist, the report labels candidate-vote/CVAP explicitly and does not call it turnout.
Boundaries
Every district is tied to its current baked geography metadata. Historical/reaggregated rows retain their measurement labels; same-number continuity across redistricting is never assumed. Exact cross-district overlap appears only from an exact intersection sidecar.
- Canonical baked Place payloadClass B
current
District identity, boundary metadata, constituent counties, freshness, and lineage. - Akashic presidential election historyClass B
2024
- Audited actual-race archive and explorer rollupsClass B
2024
U.S. House, U.S. Senate, Senate special, and governor results where available. - American Community Survey constituency profileClass C
U.S. Census Bureau · 2024 5-year
- Citizen voting-age population lookupClass C
U.S. Census Bureau · 2024 5-year
- MIT Election Lab county presidentialClass B
2024
- Census ACS demographicsClass B
2024 5-year
- ASARB US Religion CensusClass B
2020
- AK statewide comparison resultsClass B
2024
- 2026 forecast contest universe
current boundary
District & precinct map
The district boundary and optional precinct mosaic are the same canonical map artifacts used on the Place page. Precinct geometry is displayed only when its baked viewBox registers to this current district boundary.
official deadlines
Election calendar
No official-source election calendar sidecar is published for this state.
No validated calendar events are published for this district.
sourced developments
Current-cycle intelligence appendix
No curated, source-backed current-cycle intelligence sidecar is published for this state.
No item-level current-cycle intelligence is published for this district.
incumbent record
Legislative activity appendix
No current officeholder is attached to this district.
precinct grain
Precinct intelligence appendix
Precinct summaries are derived from the existing current-boundary clipped district mosaic sidecars. Each cycle retains its own precinct results; rows are descriptive and do not infer persuasion or demographic targeting.
Latest layer2024 President
Precincts with results402
Vote volume337,776
Precinct winsD 186 · R 211 · O 0
Highest vote volume
| Precinct | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| 29-510 Fishhook | R+44.2 | 2,746 |
| 23-805 Chugach Park No. 1 | R+17.3 | 2,734 |
| 35-582 Chena | R+0.3 | 2,580 |
| 05-830 Mission Road | R+20.1 | 2,492 |
| 25-305 Butte | R+41.6 | 2,470 |
| 20-670 University No. 5 | D+10.0 | 2,466 |
| 06-260 Kasilof | R+40.3 | 2,399 |
| 21-725 East Anchorage No. 5 | D+12.8 | 2,366 |
Closest precincts
| Precinct | Margin | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| 38-824 Kipnuk | Tied | 136 |
| 38-846 Nunapitchuk | Tied | 123 |
| 38-836 Mekoryuk | Tied | 82 |
| 05-815 Kodiak Island South | Tied | 28 |
| 36-026 Bettles |