Merced County, California: True Battleground
California · Presidential Elections 1876–2024
R+4.3
2024 Margin
R+14.9%
2020→2024 Swing
R since 2024
Voting Streak
281K
Population
Merced County, California voted R+4.3 for Donald Trump in 2024, with Trump receiving 43,955 votes (50.71%). This represented a R+14.9% swing toward Republicans compared to 2020. The county has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2024.
Quick Stats
2024 ResultR+4.3
2020→2024 SwingR+14.9%
Voting StreakR since 2024
Elections on Record38
Demographics
Population281,202
Median Age
31.5(US: 38.4)
College (BA+)
14.8%(US: 34.6%)
Median Income
$64,772(US: $78k)
White (non-Hisp)
24.3%(US: 57.5%)
Hispanic
62.7%(US: 18.6%)
Black
3.3%(US: 12.3%)
Asian
7.3%(US: 5.7%)
Homeownership
53.3%(US: 64.2%)
Poverty Rate
18.4%(US: 12.4%)
Veterans
4.0%(US: 6.4%)
Non-English (CVAP)
45.5%(US: 17.1%)
Community Profile
Religious Composition
Source: Religion Census 2020CatholicSwing vote
33.9%(+15.2 vs US)
EvangelicalStrongly R
7.0%(-9.4 vs US)
LDS/MormonHistorically R
1.0%(-1.0 vs US)
Black ProtestantStrongly D
0.8%(-1.4 vs US)
Mainline ProtestantSuburban swing
0.6%(-4.6 vs US)
Age Distribution
Median:31.5 yrs(US: 38.5)
Under 18Future voters
29.1%↑
18-29Lean D, low turnout
10.8%↓
30-44Swing voters
21.3%↑
45-64Lean R, high turnout
27.2%
65+Lean R, highest turnout
11.6%↓
National average
Employment by Industry
Source: Census ACSRetail Trade
10.7%Manufacturing
10.5%AgricultureVery high
10.5%ConstructionAbove avg
8.5%Education
7.9%Professional ServicesBelow avg
6.8%Political relevance:
Agriculture: Farm bill, rural RHealthcare: ACA debates
+ 1 more industries
Presidential Elections
Presidential Results
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46.4%(40,190) | 50.7%(43,955) | R+4.3 | R+14.9 |
| 2020 | 53.8%(48,991) | 43.3%(39,397) | D+10.5 | R+1.5 |
| 2016 | 52.5%(37,317) | 40.4%(28,725) | D+12.1 | D+3.4 |
| 2012 | 53.0%(33,005) | 44.3%(27,581) | D+8.7 | D+0.4 |
| 2008 | 53.1%(34,031) | 44.8%(28,704) | D+8.3 | D+22.6 |
| 2004 | 42.3%(24,491) | 56.5%(32,773) | R+14.3 | R+7.6 |
| 2000 | 45.1%(22,726) | 51.8%(26,102) | R+6.7 | R+8.7 |
| 1996 | 46.4%(21,786) | 44.4%(20,847) | D+2.0 | R+2.4 |
| 1992 | 40.9%(20,133) | 36.5%(17,981) | D+4.4 | D+8.2 |
| 1988 | 47.4%(20,105) | 51.2%(21,717) | R+3.8 | D+15.0 |
Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab
Senate Elections
Senate Results
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 45.8%(23,659) | 0.0%(0) | D+45.8 | D+35.9 |
| 2012 | 55.0%(32,955) | 45.0%(27,000) | D+9.9 | R+2.7 |
| 2006 | 53.8%(22,081) | 41.2%(16,914) | D+12.6 | D+0.7 |
| 2000 | 51.9%(25,426) | 40.0%(19,612) | D+11.9 | D+25.5 |
| 1994 | 39.0%(15,092) | 52.7%(20,372) | R+13.7 | R+17.5 |
| 1992 | 47.6%(22,010) | 43.8%(20,246) | D+3.8 | D+12.1 |
| 1988 | 43.8%(17,247) | 52.0%(20,513) | R+8.3 | D+6.0 |
| 1982 | 40.3%(12,814) | 54.5%(17,348) | R+14.3 | R+19.4 |
| 1976 | 50.8%(15,217) | 45.6%(13,669) | D+5.2 | R+7.8 |
| 1970 | 55.1%(13,003) | 42.2%(9,945) | D+13.0 | R+3.7 |
Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab
Governor Elections
Governor Results
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 52.0%(30,783) | 48.0%(28,424) | D+4.0 | D+3.7 |
| 2014 | 50.1%(18,945) | 49.9%(18,848) | D+0.3 | D+2.6 |
| 2010 | 45.8%(21,887) | 48.1%(23,021) | R+2.4 | D+26.7 |
| 2006 | 33.4%(14,027) | 62.5%(26,231) | R+29.1 | R+26.3 |
| 2002 | 44.6%(18,071) | 47.3%(19,191) | R+2.8 | R+12.0 |
| 1998 | 53.4%(21,200) | 44.2%(17,535) | D+9.2 | D+38.8 |
| 1994 | 33.4%(13,197) | 62.9%(24,873) | R+29.5 | R+23.4 |
| 1990 | 44.5%(15,004) | 50.6%(17,054) | R+6.1 | D+33.5 |
| 1986 | 29.3%(9,105) | 68.9%(21,426) | R+39.6 | R+31.1 |
| 1982 | 44.1%(14,649) | 52.6%(17,477) | R+8.5 | R+23.9 |
Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab