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AK-HD-18's presidential lean within the constraints of Alaska's block-level data gap, paired with the statewide reference.
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Alaska voted R+13.1 in 2024, running 11.7 points to the right of the national R+1.4 — the cleanest single-cycle read of the parent gap in the last three elections. The state shifted 3.0 points right from 2020 even as it had moved 4.7 points left between 2016 and 2020, so the Trump-era arc has been non-linear rather than a steady drift. Underneath the margin, Alaska is 52.3% non-Hispanic white with a $93,813 median household income.
Headline numbers at a glance
Alaska voted R+13.1 in 2024, widening from R+10.1 in 2020 — a 3.0-point rightward shift at the statewide level that anchors any HD-18 read. The lean score sits at R+12.6, with 2024 turnout at 64.0%. HD-level precision leans on borough-grain fallback, so the statewide figure is the firmer reference point for the district's 2024 position.
Where the answer lives
AK, the full state outline.
Cycle-by-cycle arc
HD-18 ran R+13.1 in 2024, ending the 2016–2024 span 1.7 points to the left of where it started at R+14.8. The inflection was 2020, when the margin moved 4.7 points left to R+10.1 before snapping back. The 2020→2024 swing shifted 3.0 points right, erasing most of the prior cycle's Democratic gain. The three-cycle band reflects borough-grain fallback rather than block-level precision.
Shifted 1.7 pts right across 8 years.
Population, income, education
Alaska is plurality white at 59.6% across 736K people, with the non-Hispanic white share at roughly 52.3%. Median household income sits at $93,813 and the poverty rate at 10.1%. College attainment runs at 31.5% bachelor's-plus, with 7.7% foreign-born. No containing-geography breakdown is available to anchor a contrast, and these figures stand in for HD-18 under the borough-grain fallback.
Against county, state, and national
| Geography | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 | Change since 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK | R+14.8 | R+10.1 | R+13.1 | +1.7 pts |
| United States | D+2.1 | D+4.5 | R+1.4 | -3.5 pts |
Akashic Atlas, "AK-HD-18's presidential lean within the constraints of Alaska's block-level data gap, paired with the statewide reference", answer ID -vPLqxF0zPtX, generated 2026-04-29, retrieved 2026-04-30. https://akashicedge.com/atlas/a/-vPLqxF0zPtX
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