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Clay County, MO's 2020-to-2024 partisan shift in five-cycle context, with the demographic and geographic correlates of the move.
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Clay County, MO drifted 1.5 points right between 2020 and 2024 to land at R+5.6, a modest cycle shift that masks how far the county sits from its political surroundings. MO-6 ran R+26.6 in 2024 — a 21.0-point gap with the district that contains Clay, and the county's margin tracks closer to the national R+1.4 than to Missouri's R+18.4. The demographic floor doesn't explain the divergence on its own: at 88.9% non-Hispanic white across 184,000 people and 24.9% bachelor's-plus, Clay's composition reads suburban-Republican, but its politics run well to the left of the rural counties around it.
Headline numbers at a glance
Where the answer lives
Clay in Missouri, drawn against the state outline.
Cycle-by-cycle arc
Shifted 5.0 pts left across 16 years.
Population, income, education
Clay County is 88.9% non-Hispanic white across 184,000 people, with 24.9% of adults holding a bachelor's degree. Median household income sits at $48,347 and the poverty rate is 5.5%. Foreign-born residents make up 2.9% of the population. The mid-income, lower-credentialed, overwhelmingly white profile is the demographic backdrop for the county's rightward move over the five-cycle arc.
Against county, state, and national
| Geography | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 | Change since 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay | R+10.9 | R+4.1 | R+5.6 | -5.0 pts |
| Missouri | R+18.5 | R+15.4 | R+18.4 | +0.1 pts |
| MO-6 | R+27.1 | R+28.1 | R+26.6 | +0.5 pts |
| United States | D+2.1 | D+4.5 | R+1.4 | -3.5 pts |
Akashic Atlas, "Clay County, MO's 2020-to-2024 partisan shift in five-cycle context, with the demographic and geographic correlates of the move", answer ID 9WUc-SJtVBBs, generated 2026-04-29, retrieved 2026-04-29. https://akashicedge.com/atlas/a/9WUc-SJtVBBs
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