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The state of Pennsylvania
How Atlas thought about thisplace_lookup

Question interpretation

Profile of Pennsylvania — presidential margin history, demographics, and national context.

Resolution strategy

  1. 01lookup_geographypennsylvania
    Parameters
    {
      "query": "Pennsylvania",
      "preferred_geo_types": [
        "state"
      ]
    }

Plus 1 comparison shape: national.

Data pulls

  • reaggregationpennsylvania · 2024, 2020, 2016, 2012, 2008
  • demographicspennsylvania
  • historypennsylvania · 2024, 2020, 2016, 2012, 2008
  • forecastpennsylvania

Sections

  1. 01
    overview
  2. 02
    shape_map
  3. 03
    historical_trend
  4. 04
    demographic_lens
  5. 05
    comparison_table

Narrative angle

Headline emphasis. 2024 statewide presidential margin and the cycle-by-cycle trajectory across the last five presidential elections

Frame. Pennsylvania's 2008-2024 presidential trajectory as a battleground state with a distinct cycle-by-cycle arc.

View raw JSON
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    "question_archetype": "place_lookup"
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  1. Plan drafted
  2. Shape resolved — pennsylvania
  3. Section 2 · overview
  4. Section 3 · shape_map
  5. Section 4 · historical_trend
  6. Section 5 · demographic_lens
  7. Section 6 · comparison_table
Answer readycached

Pennsylvania's 2008-2024 presidential trajectory as a battleground state with a distinct cycle-by-cycle arc.

Scroll to read the full answer

Pennsylvania's 2008-2024 presidential trajectory as a battleground state with a distinct cycle-by-cycle arc.

from cache$2.79139s
overview02
R+2.2
Lean Score
R+1.3
2020 margin
D+0.7
2024 turnout
67.9%

R+2.2 in 2024, a 2.9-point rightward swing from D+0.7 in 2020. Pennsylvania's lean score sits at R+1.3 across recent cycles, with 13.3M residents and 67.9% turnout in 2024.

high confidence
shape map03
Primary shape
PA
Comparison outlines
3 · PA
Center
40.65°N, 76.65°W
Zoom
z6
Extent
5.83° × 2.80°

Pennsylvania, the Keystone State stretching from Philadelphia across the Appalachians to Pittsburgh.

historical trend04

Shifted 12.2 pts left across 16 years.

DR20162008: D+9.92012: D+5.12016: R+1.32020: D+0.72024: R+2.220082024
D+9.9 in 2008, R+2.2 in 2024, shifted 12.2 points left; inflection at 2016.
2008D+9.92012D+5.12016R+1.32020D+0.72024R+2.2

Pennsylvania shifted 12.2 points right from 2008 to 2024, ending at R+2.2 after D+9.9 under Obama's first win. The break came in 2016, when margin swung 6.4 points right from D+5.1 to R+1.3. The state has now split its last three cycles: R+1.3, D+0.7, R+2.2.

demographic lens05
race composition
white 75.2%Black 10.9%Hispanic 8.0%Asian 3.9%

No comparison geography available.

population
13,269,000
voting-age population
10,567,635
non-Hispanic white (approx.)
67.2%
  • Spatial rollup via ST_Intersects against 10,333 block-group(s).
  • Spatial selection is inclusive-intersect (boundary BGs counted in full); no area-weighted partial inclusion in v1.
  • pct_non_hispanic_white is approximate: computed as (pop_white - pop_hispanic) / total_population. PL 94-171 race/ethnicity cross-tabs are not available at block-group resolution.
  • median_age not aggregable at block-group in v1; returned null.
  • ACS socioeconomic data (income, college, poverty, foreign-born) not available at block-group level in v1; aggregate county-level ACS is a Phase 2 enhancement.
  • No containing-geography race breakdown available; contrasting_dimension omitted.

Plurality white at 75.2%, voting-age population 10.57M, 13.27M people total. Non-Hispanic white share approximates 67.2%, with Black residents at 10.9% the second-largest group. Hispanic share sits at 8.0%, Asian at 3.9%.

comparison table06
  • PA-12.2 pts
    2016
    R+1.3
    2020
    D+0.7
    2024
    R+2.2
  • Clinton-6.8 pts
    2016
    R+34.0
    2020
    R+36.3
    2024
    R+40.9
  • Pennsylvania-1.0 pts
    2016
    R+0.7
    2020
    D+1.2
    2024
    R+1.7
  • PA-15-1.6 pts
    2016
    R+36.4
    2020
    R+37.0
    2024
    R+38.0

Clinton County stands out on trajectory, moving 6.8 points right since 2016 while PA-15 shifted just 1.6 and Pennsylvania as a whole moved 1.0. Clinton landed at R+40.9 in 2024, running about 3 points redder than its containing PA-15 at R+38.0. The statewide and district lines track their own prior cycles closely; Clinton is the row pulling away.