One moment…
One moment…
Pennsylvania counties that shifted most to the right (Republican-ward) in presidential margin between 2012 and 2024, ranked by swing magnitude.
Ambiguity notes
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"question": "Top 10 Pennsylvania counties with the largest Republican-ward swing in presidential margin between 2012 and 2024 (most negative value of margin_2024 minus margin_2012), ranked by swing magnitude",
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}Plus 2 comparison shapes: containing_state, national.
Headline emphasis. Magnitude of R-ward swing from 2012 to 2024 for the top Pennsylvania counties and what they share demographically
Frame. The specific Pennsylvania counties where the 2012 to 2024 shift toward Republicans has been largest, and how their trajectory compares to the state overall.
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"Causal attribution to any single national political figure or policy",
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}The specific Pennsylvania counties where the 2012 to 2024 shift toward Republicans has been largest, and how their trajectory compares to th
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R+1.1 in 2024 for Pennsylvania's top rightward-shifting counties, a 2.2-point swing from D+1.1 in 2020. The cohort covers 6.5M people and turned out at 73.5%. Lean score sits at R+0.7, placing this bloc to the right of Pennsylvania's statewide result.
The Pennsylvania counties with the largest Republican swings from 2012 to 2024, scattered across the state's industrial and Appalachian belts.
Shifted 8.9 pts left across 16 years.
Pennsylvania shifted 8.9 points right from 2008 to 2024, moving from D+4.6 to R+4.3. The inflection came in 2012, when the margin swung 5.8 points right in a single cycle and flipped the state from D+4.6 to R+1.2. Republicans have carried the statewide margin in four straight cycles since.
| Geography | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| pa_rightward_counties | R+2.3 | D+1.1 | R+1.1 | -7.6 pts |
| Huntingdon | R+50.1 | R+51.0 | R+52.9 | -2.8 pts |
| Pennsylvania | R+0.7 | D+1.2 | R+1.7 | -1.0 pts |
| PA-13 | R+46.3 | R+45.2 | R+45.5 | +0.8 pts |
Huntingdon County sits at R+52.9 in 2024, 51.2 points more Republican than the PA rightward-counties cohort at R+1.1. Its 2.8-point R-ward drift since 2016 is muted compared to the cohort's 7.6-point rightward move over the same span. Pennsylvania overall (R+1.7) and PA-13 (R+45.5) both tracked roughly flat against their 2016 marks.
Plurality white at 79.8%, 6.53M people across a voting-age population of 5.21M. Non-Hispanic white share runs 74.1%, with Black residents at 8.2% and Hispanic at 5.6%. Median age and county-level ACS breakdowns are unavailable at block-group resolution in this rollup.