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McLennan County's 2020 to 2024 partisan shift decomposed by sub-geography, demographic correlation, and peer-cohort comparison.
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McLennan County voted R+30.8 in 2024, a 7.5-point rightward jump from R+23.4 in 2020 that completes a 6.9-point arc since 2008 — the 2024 cycle is the visible break in a slower realignment building across the prior three elections. The county now sits 29.4 points to the right of the national margin, a divergence wide enough to suggest sharp precinct-level splits inside the 214,000-person footprint. Non-Hispanic white residents make up 54.3% of the population, but median household income runs $33,560 against a 17.6% poverty rate — an economic profile that doesn't match the suburban-Texas margin on the surface.
Headline numbers at a glance
McLennan voted R+30.8 in 2024, a 7.5-point rightward shift from R+23.4 in 2020. The lean score sits at R+28.4, placing underlying partisanship close to the 2024 result. Turnout came in at 27.1%.
Where the answer lives
McLennan in Texas, drawn against the state outline.
From one party to the other
Held R from 2020 to 2024 (moved -7.5).
Cycle-by-cycle arc
McLennan County swung 7.5 points right between 2020 and 2024, finishing R+30.8 after sitting at R+23.4 in 2020. That single-cycle move is larger than the full 16-year drift of 6.9 points, and it landed the county at its most Republican margin of the Obama-through-Trump span. The arc wasn't linear: the county tightened 3.0 points left in 2016 and another 3.4 left in 2020 before the 2024 snapback erased both moves and then some. The 2008 starting point of R+23.9 now reads as the floor, not the baseline.
Shifted 6.9 pts left across 16 years.
Population, income, education
Against county, state, and national
| Geography | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 | Change since 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLennan | R+26.8 | R+23.4 | R+30.8 | -6.9 pts |
| Texas | R+9.0 | R+5.6 | R+13.7 | -4.7 pts |
| TX-17 | R+22.8 | R+16.0 | R+21.6 | +1.2 pts |
| United States | D+2.1 | D+4.5 | R+1.4 | -3.5 pts |
Akashic Atlas, "McLennan County's 2020 to 2024 partisan shift decomposed by sub-geography, demographic correlation, and peer-cohort comparison", answer ID OezkmCUCqhKG, generated 2026-04-30, retrieved 2026-04-30. https://akashicedge.com/atlas/a/OezkmCUCqhKG
Atlas answered this. Ask a follow-up.
Which precincts in McLennan swung most right from 2020 to 2024, and what are their racial and income profiles?
How did McLennan's 2024 margin compare to other Texas counties with similar poverty rates and white population shares?
Did McLennan's rightward shift accelerate in 2024 or continue the steady arc from 2008 through 2020?