NY-14 swung 21.9 points right between 2020 and 2024, landing at D+34.0 after sitting at D+55.9 four years earlier. The Bronx-and-Queens seat still carries a D+44.3 lean score, a gap with the 2024 margin that signals how far the cycle ran below the district's baseline. Turnout came in at 33.5%, the floor under that swing.

36-14 in New York, drawn against the state and county outlines.

NY-14 has shed 31.6 points of Democratic margin across 16 years, ending at D+34.0 in 2024 after peaking at D+73.6 under Obama in 2012. The arc moved one direction after that peak: R+7.6 from 2012 to 2016, R+10.2 from 2016 to 2020, then R+21.9 from 2020 to 2024. Each cycle's rightward step has been larger than the last, with 2020→2024 alone accounting for two-thirds of the full 16-year drift. Total votes cast fell from 228,785 in 2020 to 204,555 in 2024, so the compression came on lower turnout as well.

NY-14 is 51.4% Hispanic across 773K people, with a foreign-born share of 36.2% that defines the district more than any other dimension. Black residents make up 18.3% and Asian residents 11.7%, leaving the non-Hispanic white share in the low double digits. Median household income sits at $67,549 with a poverty rate of 19.8%, and 29.5% of adults hold a bachelor's degree. The Bronx-Queens immigrant composition is the demographic backdrop against which the rightward swing landed.

The shape ran D+34.0 against New York's D+13.2 — a 20.8-point gap that puts the district well to the left of its parent state. The shape compressed 31.6 points across the cycles shown, while New York compressed 9.3 points over the same span. Turnout came in at 33.5% in the shape against 55.3% statewide.