Obama-Trump flip counties voted R+10.7 in 2024, extending a 5.1-point rightward shift from R+5.6 in 2020. The cohort's lean score sits at R+9.0, a settled position rather than a one-cycle swing. Turnout came in at 33.8%.

obama_trump_flip_counties, drawn against its containing state.

The flip cohort broke in 2016, swinging 14.4 points right in a single cycle from D+6.6 to R+7.8. Across the full 16-year span, these counties moved 20.1 points right, going from D+9.4 under Obama in 2008 to R+10.7 in 2024. The 2016 inflection did the bulk of that work; 2020 clawed back just 2.2 points to R+5.6 before 2024 pushed another 5.1 points right. Turnout has held in a narrow band — 30.6% in 2008, 33.8% in 2024 — so the realignment ran through vote choice, not mobilization.

Demographic payload for the Obama-Trump flip cohort is missing from this section, so the racial composition, age, income, and education contrasts that would normally anchor the read are not available here.

Clayton County ran R+34.5 in 2024 while the Obama-Trump flip cohort overall sat at R+10.7 — a 23.7-point gap that puts Clayton far to the right of the rest of the group. Clayton has moved 11.9 points right since 2016, deepening from R+22.6 to R+34.5. Iowa overall came in at R+13.2 and IA-2 at R+10.0, tracking the cohort closely. Clayton is the row pulling away from its parents.