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The deep-red county set in 2024 as a geographic and demographic cohort, with multi-cycle context.
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The counties Trump won by 20+ points ran R+63.7 in aggregate in 2024, while Kansas — one of the states housing this cohort — sat at R+16.1, a 47.6-point gap between the set and its containing geography. The cohort's break came in 2016, when its margin swung 10.3 points right in a single cycle, accounting for most of the 14.0-point rightward arc since 2012. Turnout across the set landed at 31.4%, the structural drag that keeps these deep margins from translating into proportional vote weight.
Headline numbers at a glance
The Trump +20 county set ran R+63.7 in 2024, deepening 2.75 points right from R+61.0 in 2020. The lean score sits at R+62.4, placing the cohort's structural baseline within a point of its 2024 result. Turnout across the set came in at 31.4%, the cohort's defining drag against its margin weight.
Where the answer lives
trump_20pt_counties, drawn against its containing state.
Population, income, education
No demographic data is available for this section.
Cycle-by-cycle arc
The R+20 cohort's break came in 2016, when its aggregate margin swung 10.3 points right in a single cycle from R+47.1 to R+57.3. That one inflection accounts for most of the 14.0-point rightward arc the cohort has traveled since 2012. The two cycles since have added only 0.8 and 2.9 points of further drift, landing at R+61.0 in 2024. The 2012 baseline of R+47.1 is the last cycle these counties looked materially different from their current form.
Shifted 14.0 pts left across 12 years.
Against county, state, and national
The R+20 county set ran R+63.7 in 2024 while Kansas overall sat at R+16.1 — a 47.6-point gap that separates this cohort from the state it lives in. KS-1, the rural western district, came in at R+31.3, still 32.4 points to the left of the cohort. Ness County anchors the deep end at R+78.9. The cohort has moved 4.1 points right since 2016 even as Kansas overall shifted 4.3 points left over the same span.
| Geography | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 | Change since 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| trump_20pt_counties | R+59.6 | R+61.0 | R+63.7 | -4.1 pts |
| Ness | R+73.3 | R+78.5 | R+78.9 | -5.6 pts |
| Kansas | R+20.4 | R+14.8 | R+16.1 | +4.3 pts |
| KS-1 | R+33.9 | R+29.6 | R+31.3 | +2.5 pts |
Akashic Atlas, "The deep-red county set in 2024 as a geographic and demographic cohort, with multi-cycle context", answer ID Z8Lg17pk8tyf, generated 2026-04-27, retrieved 2026-05-01. https://akashicedge.com/atlas/a/Z8Lg17pk8tyf
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