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The 2020→2024 shift in Arizona, county by county.
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Headline numbers at a glance
Arizona's flipped counties swung 9.3 points right between 2020 and 2024, moving from D+5.4 to R+3.9. That single-cycle swing runs well above the 1–3 point range typical at this geography. Turnout in the set landed at 29.6%.
Where the answer lives
az_flipped_counties, drawn against its containing state.
From one party to the other
Flipped R from 2020 to 2024. -9.1 points.
Cycle-by-cycle arc
Shifted 9.6 pts left across 16 years.
Population, income, education
Demographic data for the flipped counties is unavailable in this section.
Against county, state, and national
Arizona's flipped counties came in at R+3.9 in 2024 while CA-20 ran R+32.2 — a 28.3-point gap that's the standout contrast in the table. Kern sat at R+21.1 and California overall at D+20.2, leaving the flipped-county row as the closest-to-even entry by a wide margin. Every row moved right between 2020 and 2024, with shifts ranging from 3.8 to 9.8 points.
| Geography | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 | Change since 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| az_flipped_counties | D+5.5 | D+5.4 | R+3.9 | -9.3 pts |
| Kern | R+12.7 | R+10.2 | R+21.1 | -8.4 pts |
| California | D+30.0 | D+29.2 | D+20.1 | -9.8 pts |
| CA-20 | R+28.4 | R+26.2 | R+32.2 | -3.8 pts |
Akashic Atlas, "The 2020→2024 shift in Arizona, county by county", answer ID nYWTGwpRhyFj, generated 2026-04-27, retrieved 2026-05-01. https://akashicedge.com/atlas/a/nYWTGwpRhyFj
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