Katie Porter

The real race is the nonpartisan primary, and it’s chaotic. Steve Hilton leads at 17% with 38% of Republicans, Chad Bianco is at 15.5%, and the Democratic vote is fatally fragmented: Swalwell 12.5%, Porter 10.5%, Steyer 8.5%. It is mathematically possible that two Republicans finish in the top two and advance to the general. Porter was the early frontrunner at 18% but has been fading since Swalwell entered. Democratic operatives are panicking about vote-splitting, and if the party doesn’t consolidate behind one candidate, California could embarrass itself with a Republican governor.