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      Data: MIT Election Lab, VEST, Census Bureau
      Home›Candidates›Michelle Steel

      Michelle Steel

      Republican

      House candidate from California

      US House
      Electoral Grade
      A-
      +29.3 pts
      avg overperformance
      Better than 83% of candidates3 graded races

      Overperformance vs. state presidential baseline. Incumbents held to a higher bar: Senate/Gov −3 pts, House −2 pts.

      3
      Races
      2-1
      W-L (67%)
      -2.3
      Avg Margin
      2020–2024
      Career Span
      Best: +0.2 (2024 House)Worst: -4.8 (2022 House)

      Career Margin Trend3 races

      R+10EvenD+10202020222024

      Career Timeline

      2024 US HouseCaliforniaDistrict 45
      157,611
      Candidate Votes
      49.9%
      Vote %
      315,875
      Total Votes
      +0.2%
      Margin
      Electoral Performance
      +22.5
      Race Score
      +20.5
      vs. Natl. Baseline
      D+20.7
      State Pres.
      Incumbent (−2pt bar)
      Top opponent: Derek TranDEM
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