Leans Democratic — flipped 5 times in 25 elections
POPULATION
766K
HOUSE MARGIN
D+13.4
2024
PRES MARGIN
D+1.2
2024
LEAN
Lean D
COLLEGE+
20%
Place Story
Leans Democratic since 2016
Competitive with a modest baseline — persuasion matters on the margin.
Demographically distinctive: 63% Hispanic (+44pp vs national)
Ticket-splitting: President ran 41.7pp behind House
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
2024 / 2020 precinct vintages
See how each split precinct fragment inside CA-39 voted, swung, and lines up demographically.
Unlock with Pro$33/mo| Group | CA-39 | State | National |
|---|---|---|---|
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 63.3% | 40.2% | 19.3% |
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 18.4% | 33.8% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(9) | 8.8% | 5.4% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 6.4% | 15.5% | 6.0% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 1.4% | — | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
20% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 13pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs House | D+1.2 | D+13.4 | 12.2pp |