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      Data: MIT Election Lab, VEST, Census Bureau
      Home/Elections/2026/US Senate/North Carolina
      2026 ForecastLikely D
      2026·US Senate·North Carolina

      North Carolina US Senate

      Open Seat

      Thom Tillis (R) retiring

      Senate Class 2

      Race Analysis

      Perfect storm for Democrats with dream recruit two-term governor Roy Cooper. This one has a chance to not see much spending even — Cooper has the clear edge.

      Updated 2026-02-18

      Candidates & Primaries

      Democratic Candidates

      Roy CooperDDeclared

      Former two-term governor of North Carolina

      B2W-0L2 races
      Full profile →
      Democratic PrimaryPolymarket

      Will Marcus Williams be the Democratic nominee for Senate in North Carolina?

      Data from Polymarket prediction markets

      Republican Candidates

      TBDRDeclared

      Tillis retiring; GOP primary ongoing

      Republican PrimaryPolymarket

      Will Lara Trump be the Republican nominee for Senate in North Carolina?

      Data from Polymarket prediction markets

      State Demographics

      North Carolina vs. National · Pop. 10.7M

      White (non-Hispanic)60.0%
      National: 57.4%
      Black20.3%
      National: 12.2%
      Hispanic/Latino11.3%
      National: 19.3%
      Asian3.3%
      National: 6.0%
      College Degree35.8%
      National: 35.6%
      Median Income$74,272
      National: $83,960
      Median Age39.5
      National: 39.1

      Seat History

      US Senate in North Carolina(Class I)

      2022
      Ted BuddREP
      R+3.2
      2020
      Thom TillisREP
      R+1.8
      2016
      Richard M BurrREP
      R+5.7
      2014
      Thom TillisREP
      R+1.6
      2010
      Richard M BurrREP
      R+11.8
      2008
      Kay R HaganDEM
      D+8.5
      2004
      Richard M BurrREP
      R+4.6
      2002
      Elizabeth DoleREP
      R+8.6
      1998
      John EdwardsDEM
      D+4.1
      1996
      Jesse HelmsREP
      R+6.7
      1992
      Lauch FairclothREP
      R+4.0
      1990
      Jesse HelmsREP
      R+5.1
      1986
      Terry SanfordDEM
      D+3.5
      1984
      Jesse HelmsREP
      R+3.9
      1980
      John P. EastREP
      R+0.6
      View all US Senate history for North Carolina →

      Also in North Carolina, 2026

      No other statewide races in 2026
      ← 2026 Forecast Overview
      ← 2026 Forecast OverviewNorth Carolina profileAll elections