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California State Senate District 38

California State Senate District 38

California · Latest: 2024↓ R+4.8 vs 2020

Leans Democratic — shifted 4.8pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 973K residents

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California State Senate District 38 is a state senate district that has a population of 973,049. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+12.9. Akashic Edge tracks 5 presidential elections here, dating back to 2008.

California State Senate District 38 Presidential Election Results, 2008–2024
YearDem %Rep %MarginSwing
202454.9%42.1%D+12.9R+4.8
2020*57.7%40.1%D+17.6D+7.3
2016*52.1%41.7%D+10.3D+15.0
2012*47.7%52.3%R+4.6R+8.6
2008*51.9%47.9%D+3.9—

* Pre-2022 results projected onto current district boundaries. Actual boundaries at the time of the election may have differed.

Political Identity

What defines CA-SD-38?

CA-SD-38 has been won by both parties in the last 5 presidential elections (4D, 1R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a working-class electorate (0% college-educated) — a demographic increasingly aligned with Republicans nationwide.

Similarity Explorer

Similar state senate districts

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore CA-SD-38's political evolution with the Historian
Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
  • Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2012
  • Highly elastic — margins have ranged 22.3 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
  • Turnout decreased by 64.4 percentage points since the previous presidential election
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
CA-SD-38Census ACS 2024
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 57.7%Hispanic 24.3%Asian 9.5%Multiracial 4.9%Black 2.2%Native American 0.9%Native Hawaiian 0.4%
GroupCA-SD-38StateNational
White (Non-Hispanic)
57.7%33.8%57.4%
Hispanic / Latino
24.3%40.2%19.3%
Asian
9.5%15.5%6.0%
Multiracial / Other
4.9%3.5%4.0%
Black / African American
2.2%5.4%12.2%
Native American / Alaska Native
0.9%1.3%0.9%
Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander
0.4%0.4%0.2%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Detailed ancestry data unavailable for this geography.

Who lives in California State Senate District 38? 973,049 residents as of the 2020 Census.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
CA-SD-38 vs California vs National973K residents
Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
973K
local
973KState 39.3MNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
0.29%
local
0.29%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
79.8%
local
79.8%State 75.8%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState $102,676National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 12.0%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 36.6%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 55.9%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 37.9 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 16.2%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 15.7%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 27.0%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 44.4%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 55.6%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in CA-SD-38

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
63.7%
vs Previous
-64.4pp
Voting-Age Pop
776,376
History
2008–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is CA-SD-38?

Likely DAvg margin: D+13.6 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+3.9
2012
R+4.6
2016
D+10.3
2020
D+17.6
2024
D+12.9
Elasticity
22.3pp
margin range
Party Flips
2
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
D+8.0

Other California State Senate Districts

39 total
NameMargin ↓
CA-SD-07D+71.7
CA-SD-11D+62.3
CA-SD-28D+59.7
CA-SD-26D+54.1
CA-SD-13D+52.3
CA-SD-35D+45.8
CA-SD-02D+43.3
CA-SD-09D+38.3
CA-SD-10D+37.3
CA-SD-24D+36.6
CA-SD-33D+36.2
CA-SD-15D+35.0
CA-SD-08D+32.5
CA-SD-17D+31.9
CA-SD-20D+28.1
CA-SD-39D+27.5
CA-SD-03D+27.0
CA-SD-25D+24.3
CA-SD-21D+22.7
CA-SD-27D+21.9
CA-SD-30D+17.3
CA-SD-34D+16.3
CA-SD-22D+14.1
CA-SD-18D+13.1
CA-SD-29D+9.8
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