Safe Republican — voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000
POPULATION
3.0M
VAP
2.3M
TURNOUT
52.3%
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
GOVERNOR
Sanders
(R)
2024 PRES
R+30.6
Place Story
Evangelical edge: 58pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: President ran 99.4pp behind Senate
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.