Leans Republican — shifted 5.8pp toward Republicans in 2024
POPULATION
7.4M
VAP
5.6M
TURNOUT
60.5%
COMPETITIVENESS
Tilt R
GOVERNOR
Hobbs
(D)
2024 PRES
R+5.5
Place Story
Ticket-splitting: President ran 73.0pp ahead of Senate
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Catholic edge: 24pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.