Leans Republican — shifted 9.7pp toward Republicans in 2024
POPULATION
22.4M
VAP
17.6M
TURNOUT
62.0%
COMPETITIVENESS
Lean R
GOVERNOR
DeSantis
(R)
2024 PRES
R+13.1
Place Story
Leans Republican since 2016
Competitive with a modest baseline — persuasion matters on the margin.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 29.3pp ahead of Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.