
Leans Republican — shifted 5.0pp toward Republicans in 2024
POPULATION
3.2M
VAP
2.4M
TURNOUT
70.0%
COMPETITIVENESS
Likely R
GOVERNOR
Reynolds
(R)
2024 PRES
R+13.2
Place Story
Leans Republican since 2016
Demographically distinctive: 82% non-Hispanic white (+25pp vs national)
Ticket-splitting: President ran 41.6pp ahead of Senate
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Catholic edge: 8pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.