
Safe Republican — 8D, 32R in 40 presidential elections
POPULATION
6.9M
VAP
5.1M
TURNOUT
57.8%
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
GOVERNOR
Braun
(R)
2024 PRES
R+19.0
Place Story
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 49.6pp behind Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Evangelical edge: 16pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Demographically distinctive: 75% non-Hispanic white (+18pp vs national)