Leans Democratic — voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992
POPULATION
1.4M
VAP
1.1M
TURNOUT
75.2%
COMPETITIVENESS
Lean D
GOVERNOR
Mills
(D)
2024 PRES
D+6.5
Place Story
Leans Democratic since 1992
Competitive with a modest baseline — persuasion matters on the margin.
Demographically distinctive: 90% non-Hispanic white (+33pp vs national)
Catholic edge: 32pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 61.3pp behind Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.