Competitive — voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1976
POPULATION
5.7M
VAP
4.3M
TURNOUT
75.8%
COMPETITIVENESS
Tilt D
GOVERNOR
Walz
(D)
2024 PRES
D+4.2
Place Story
Tilts Democratic since 1976
Competitive with a modest baseline — persuasion matters on the margin.
Ticket-splitting: President ran 27.0pp behind Senate
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Catholic edge: 15pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.
Demographically distinctive: 76% non-Hispanic white (+18pp vs national)