Safe Republican — voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000
POPULATION
6.2M
VAP
4.6M
TURNOUT
64.4%
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
GOVERNOR
Kehoe
(R)
2024 PRES
R+18.4
Place Story
Ticket-splitting: President ran 22.5pp behind Senate
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Evangelical edge: 24pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Demographically distinctive: 76% non-Hispanic white (+19pp vs national)