
Safe Republican — voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980
POPULATION
2.9M
VAP
2.2M
TURNOUT
56.6%
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
GOVERNOR
Reeves
(R)
2024 PRES
R+22.9
Place Story
Demographically distinctive: 36% Black (+24pp vs national)
Evangelical edge: 60pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: President ran 17.4pp ahead of Senate
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.