Safe Republican — voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968
POPULATION
785K
VAP
572K
TURNOUT
64.3%
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
GOVERNOR
Armstrong
(R)
2024 PRES
R+36.4
Place Story
Demographically distinctive: 82% non-Hispanic white (+24pp vs national)
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 80.5pp ahead of Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Catholic edge: 19pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.