Competitive — shifted 5.5pp toward Republicans in 2024
POPULATION
3.2M
VAP
2.5M
TURNOUT
60.4%
COMPETITIVENESS
Tossup
GOVERNOR
Lombardo
(R)
2024 PRES
R+3.1
Place Story
Catholic edge: 43pp over Evangelicals
Correlates nationally with Democratic-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: President ran 28.5pp behind Senate
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.