Safe Republican — voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968
POPULATION
907K
VAP
656K
TURNOUT
56.5%
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
GOVERNOR
Noem
(R)
2024 PRES
R+30.3
Place Story
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 77.0pp behind Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Demographically distinctive: 80% non-Hispanic white (+22pp vs national)
Evangelical edge: 9pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.