Leans Republican — voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980
POPULATION
30.2M
VAP
22.0M
TURNOUT
51.7%
COMPETITIVENESS
Lean R
GOVERNOR
Abbott
(R)
2024 PRES
R+13.7
Place Story
Leans Republican since 1980
Competitive with a modest baseline — persuasion matters on the margin.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 16.4pp behind Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Demographically distinctive: 40% Hispanic (+20pp vs national)