Leans Democratic — voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2008
POPULATION
8.7M
VAP
6.6M
TURNOUT
68.1%
COMPETITIVENESS
Lean D
GOVERNOR
Spanberger
(D)
2024 PRES
D+5.8
Place Story
Leans Democratic since 2008
Competitive with a modest baseline — persuasion matters on the margin.
Ticket-splitting: President ran 25.0pp behind Senate
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Evangelical edge: 22pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.