Analysis & Exploration
Data-driven political analysis. Every statistic verified. Every claim backed by data.
Featured Analysis
January 202618 min
Trump, the Machine Politician
A County-Level Regression Analysis
A 16-variable regression reveals Trump's 2024 coalition wasn't ideological—it was transactional. Non-English speaking % dominated with β=-2.16, 2× stronger than any other predictor.
0.77
r2
3,143
counties
14
variables
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January 20268 min
You Can't Gerrymander Vibes
Texas Redistricting Hubris
Texas Republicans bet 5 House seats on Trump's 2024 coalition lasting forever. TX-28 went Obama +41 in 2012. That DNA doesn't disappear.
5
districts
51pt
swing
12
years
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Big Questions
2024 Swing
Which communities shifted the most?
See where voters moved 10, 15, even 20+ points in a single election cycle.
Bellwethers
Who always picks the winner?
The counties with perfect or near-perfect presidential prediction records.
Realignment
Where did Obama voters go to Trump?
Track the working-class realignment county by county.
2024 Flips
Which counties changed hands?
Party control shifted in hundreds of counties. See the map of change.