Josh Turek

State House candidate from Iowa who won a razor-thin 0.1-point race in 2022

Democratic

State House

Electoral Grade

—

Requires 3+ graded races

Races

1-0

W-L (100%)

+0.1

Avg Margin

2022

Career Span

Best: +0.1 (2022 State House)Worst: 0.1 (2022 State House)

100%

Win Rate

Career Votes

Evidence & provenance

Source owners

Certified contest returns, candidate career records, and Akashic Edge deterministic grading inputs.

Freshness

Rendered Apr 14, 2026 from the latest candidate, contest, and forecast tables loaded in Akashic Edge.

Boundary scope

Candidate-level profile spanning every contest recorded for this person in Akashic Edge.

Claim type

Deterministic summaries, calculated grades, and certified election history. No freeform AI prose.

Source chain

MethodologyCertified contest returnsCandidate grade inputs

Open methodology

2026

Tilt R

IA SenateDeclared

Ernst's retirement is a mixed bag for Democrats — she was unpopular enough to target, but her likely replacement is stronger. Hinson has won IA-02 three times and has Thune/Scott establishment backing. The Democratic primary is a classic electability-vs-base fight: Wahls leads polls (42-24 in GQR) but Polymarket heavily favors Turek (73% to Wahls' 20%), a two-time Paralympic gold medalist and state rep who won a Trump district. The electability case is clear — Hinson leads Wahls 48-41 but is tied with Turek at 46 — and national Democrats quietly back Turek (Scholten and Sage both endorsed him on exit). Iowa has drifted hard right (Trump +8 in 2020, +13 in 2024), so Democrats need a strong nominee and a strong environment. They may get both. Tilt R.

vs.Ashley Hinson

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