Lorain County, Ohio: Declining Industrial Metro
Ohio · Presidential Elections 1892–2024
R+5.7
2024 Margin
R+3.2%
2020→2024 Swing
R since 2020
Voting Streak
🏭 Rust Belt
Classification
313K
Population
Lorain County, Ohio voted R+5.7 for Donald Trump in 2024, with Trump receiving 83,297 votes (52.12%). This represented a R+3.2% swing toward Republicans compared to 2020. The county has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2020.
Electoral Behavior
🏭
Declining Industrial MetroView all
Rust Belt urban centers that voted for Obama but have shifted dramatically toward Republicans. Former manufacturing hubs experiencing economic decline and Democratic erosion.
Volatility
4.7
Elasticity
Inelastic
Trend
-0.7/yr
Quick Stats
2024 ResultR+5.7
2020→2024 SwingR+3.2%
Voting StreakR since 2020
Elections on Record34
Demographics
Population312,964
Median Age
41.9(US: 38.4)
College (BA+)
38.4%(US: 47.9%)
Median Income
$67,272(US: $78k)
White (non-Hisp)
76.1%(US: 57.5%)
Hispanic
10.8%(US: 18.6%)
Black
7.9%(US: 12.3%)
Asian
1.3%(US: 5.7%)
Homeownership
73.7%(US: 64.2%)
Poverty Rate
12.8%(US: 12.4%)
Veterans
7.7%(US: 6.4%)
Presidential Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 46.4%(74,207) | 52.1%(83,297) | R+5.7 | -3.2 |
| 2020 | 48.1%(75,667) | 50.5%(79,520) | R+2.5 | -2.5 |
| 2016 | 46.7%(66,949) | 46.6%(66,818) | D+0.1 | -15.2 |
| 2012 | 56.5%(81,464) | 41.2%(59,405) | D+15.3 | -2.6 |
| 2008 | 58.1%(85,276) | 40.2%(59,068) | D+17.9 | +5.2 |
| 2004 | 56.1%(78,970) | 43.5%(61,203) | D+12.6 | +2.0 |
| 2000 | 53.3%(59,809) | 42.8%(47,957) | D+10.6 | -9.0 |
| 1996 | 52.4%(55,744) | 32.8%(34,937) | D+19.6 | +7.6 |
| 1992 | 43.0%(50,962) | 31.0%(36,803) | D+11.9 | +7.1 |
| 1988 | 52.0%(55,600) | 47.1%(50,410) | D+4.8 | +8.8 |
Senate Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 50.8%(79,307) | 46.0%(71,759) | D+4.8 | +2.4 |
| 2022 | 51.2%(57,191) | 48.8%(54,488) | D+2.4 | -16.1 |
| 2018 | 59.2%(67,452) | 40.8%(46,403) | D+18.5 | +31.2 |
| 2016 | 40.8%(56,032) | 53.5%(73,531) | R+12.7 | -32.3 |
| 2012 | 57.5%(80,854) | 37.9%(53,332) | D+19.6 | +26.6 |
| 2010 | 44.4%(43,102) | 51.4%(49,894) | R+7.0 | -39.8 |
| 2006 | 66.4%(67,429) | 33.6%(34,129) | D+32.8 | +48.9 |
| 2004 | 42.0%(57,436) | 58.0%(79,485) | R+16.1 | -1.0 |
| 2000 | 40.6%(44,097) | 55.7%(60,490) | R+15.1 | -18.5 |
| 1998 | 51.7%(41,041) | 48.3%(38,351) | D+3.4 | +7.8 |
Governor Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 40.0%(44,314) | 59.8%(66,289) | R+19.8 | -25.6 |
| 2018 | 51.4%(58,846) | 45.6%(52,268) | D+5.7 | +30.7 |
| 2014 | 35.8%(27,859) | 60.7%(47,256) | R+24.9 | -31.7 |
| 2010 | 51.0%(50,714) | 44.2%(43,994) | D+6.8 | -33.4 |
| 2006 | 68.3%(68,783) | 28.2%(28,342) | D+40.2 | +38.8 |
| 2002 | 49.1%(38,515) | 47.7%(37,423) | D+1.4 | -6.2 |
| 1998 | 51.2%(39,743) | 43.5%(33,816) | D+7.6 | +49.4 |
| 1994 | 27.6%(21,876) | 69.4%(54,950) | R+41.8 | -34.8 |
| 1990 | 46.5%(40,488) | 53.5%(46,514) | R+6.9 | -44.1 |
| 1986 | 68.6%(51,233) | 31.4%(23,446) | D+37.2 | +8.2 |
Primary Election History
| Year | Party | Winner | Runner-up | Nominee? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Dem | Joe Biden(72.1%) | Bernie Sanders(16.3%) | ✓ |
| 2016 | Dem | Hillary Clinton(55.7%) | Bernie Sanders(43.2%) | ✓ |
| 2016 | GOP | John Kasich(48.6%) | Donald Trump(36.7%) | ✗ |
| 2008 | Dem | Hillary Clinton(56.7%) | Barack Obama(41.5%) | ✗ |
✓ = County picked eventual party nominee
Related Counties
More in OH
Similar Swing Counties
Carroll County, New Hampshire
New Hampshire
R+1.7(R+3.2%)
Comanche County, Oklahoma
Oklahoma
R+23.3(R+3.2%)
Cumberland County, North Carolina
North Carolina
D+13.4(R+3.2%)
Hancock County, West Virginia
West Virginia
R+46.8(R+3.2%)
St. Mary's County, Maryland
Maryland
R+17.1(R+3.2%)
Aiken County, South Carolina
South Carolina
R+25.9(R+3.2%)