Erie County, Pennsylvania: Declining Industrial Metro
Pennsylvania · Presidential Elections 1892–2024
R+1.0
2024 Margin
R+2.0%
2020→2024 Swing
R since 2024
Voting Streak
🏭 Rust Belt
Classification
271K
Population
Erie County, Pennsylvania voted R+1.0 for Donald Trump in 2024, with Trump receiving 68,866 votes (49.91%). This represented a R+2.0% swing toward Republicans compared to 2020. The county has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2024.
Electoral Behavior
🏭
Declining Industrial MetroView all
Rust Belt urban centers that voted for Obama but have shifted dramatically toward Republicans. Former manufacturing hubs experiencing economic decline and Democratic erosion.
Volatility
5.5
Elasticity
Moderate
Trend
-0.6/yr
Quick Stats
2024 ResultR+1.0
2020→2024 SwingR+2.0%
Voting StreakR since 2024
Elections on Record34
Demographics
Population270,876
Median Age
39.9(US: 38.4)
College (BA+)
40.7%(US: 47.9%)
Median Income
$59,396(US: $78k)
White (non-Hisp)
82.3%(US: 57.5%)
Hispanic
4.6%(US: 18.6%)
Black
7.6%(US: 12.3%)
Asian
1.9%(US: 5.7%)
Homeownership
68.3%(US: 64.2%)
Poverty Rate
15.4%(US: 12.4%)
Veterans
7.3%(US: 6.4%)
Presidential Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 48.9%(67,456) | 49.9%(68,866) | R+1.0 | -2.0 |
| 2020 | 49.8%(68,286) | 48.8%(66,869) | D+1.0 | +2.6 |
| 2016 | 46.4%(58,112) | 48.0%(60,069) | R+1.6 | -17.5 |
| 2012 | 57.1%(68,036) | 41.2%(49,025) | D+16.0 | -3.9 |
| 2008 | 59.3%(75,775) | 39.4%(50,351) | D+19.9 | +11.5 |
| 2004 | 54.0%(67,921) | 45.6%(57,372) | D+8.4 | -0.8 |
| 2000 | 52.9%(59,399) | 43.6%(49,027) | D+9.2 | -7.0 |
| 1996 | 52.9%(57,508) | 36.7%(39,884) | D+16.2 | +1.7 |
| 1992 | 47.9%(56,381) | 33.4%(39,283) | D+14.5 | +9.1 |
| 1988 | 52.2%(53,913) | 46.8%(48,306) | D+5.4 | +8.5 |
Senate Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 49.6%(67,868) | 47.9%(65,603) | D+1.7 | -7.7 |
| 2022 | 53.4%(56,404) | 44.0%(46,507) | D+9.4 | -9.0 |
| 2018 | 58.4%(58,906) | 40.0%(40,348) | D+18.4 | +21.7 |
| 2016 | 46.3%(56,846) | 49.7%(60,948) | R+3.3 | -17.6 |
| 2012 | 55.9%(65,406) | 41.6%(48,708) | D+14.3 | +4.0 |
| 2010 | 55.1%(46,851) | 44.9%(38,146) | D+10.2 | -8.5 |
| 2006 | 59.3%(50,857) | 40.5%(34,757) | D+18.8 | +42.2 |
| 2004 | 36.5%(42,627) | 59.9%(69,937) | R+23.4 | -12.6 |
| 2000 | 43.7%(46,726) | 54.5%(58,302) | R+10.8 | +13.5 |
| 1998 | 35.5%(25,616) | 59.8%(43,175) | R+24.3 | -19.1 |
Governor Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 59.7%(63,081) | 38.3%(40,433) | D+21.4 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 59.8%(60,790) | 38.7%(39,387) | D+21.0 | +4.9 |
| 2014 | 58.1%(42,115) | 41.9%(30,389) | D+16.2 | +16.4 |
| 2010 | 49.9%(42,581) | 50.1%(42,752) | R+0.2 | -16.4 |
| 2006 | 58.1%(50,042) | 41.8%(36,059) | D+16.2 | +29.4 |
| 2002 | 41.7%(32,774) | 54.9%(43,095) | R+13.1 | +28.7 |
| 1998 | 21.8%(16,783) | 63.7%(49,027) | R+41.9 | +3.3 |
| 1994 | 22.1%(21,422) | 67.3%(65,181) | R+45.2 | -89.0 |
| 1990 | 71.9%(52,265) | 28.1%(20,424) | D+43.8 | +46.3 |
| 1986 | 47.8%(35,727) | 50.3%(37,583) | R+2.5 | +2.5 |