How did VA-02, Virginia vote in the 2024 presidential election?

VA-02, Virginia voted Democratic in 2024 with a margin of D+2.6. The Democratic candidate received 184,610 votes and the Republican candidate received 175,134 out of 365,981 total votes cast, a 2.1-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is VA-02, Virginia's political history?

VA-02, Virginia has 5 presidential elections on record, spanning 2008 to 2024. Democrats have won 2 and Republicans 3 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 8.0 points in 2020.

What are the demographics of VA-02, Virginia?

VA-02, Virginia has a population of 787,890 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 58.7% non-Hispanic white, 7.9% Hispanic, 22.4% Black. About 39% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $93,757.

Virginia's 2nd Congressional District

Virginia · Latest: 2024→ Even vs 2022

Competitive — flipped 6 times in 25 elections

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POPULATION
788K
HOUSE MARGIN
R+3.8
2024
PRES MARGIN
D+2.6
2024
LEAN
Tossup
COLLEGE+
39%

Place Story

What defines Virginia's 2nd Congressional District

Methodology

Genuine tossup
- Tossup
Full-spectrum contest: persuasion, turnout, coalition.
Ticket-splitting: President ran 19.6pp ahead of House
- Divergence 19.6pp in 2016
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Biggest swing: D+8.0 in 2020
- 2016 → 2020

District in State Context

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Precinct Deep Dive

2024 / 2020 precinct vintages

See how each split precinct fragment inside VA-02 voted, swung, and lines up demographically.

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Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore this district's political evolution with the Historian

“How has Virginia's 2nd Congressional District voted in House elections since 2000?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

VA-02Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 58.7%Black 22.4%Hispanic 7.9%Asian 5.4%Multiracial 5.3%

Group	VA-02	State	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	58.7%	58.4%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(15)	22.4%	18.6%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)	7.9%	11.0%	19.3%
▶Asian(6)	5.4%	6.9%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	5.3%	4.7%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9)	0.8%	—	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.3%	0.4%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

VA-02 vs Virginia vs National788K residents

39% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 6pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+8 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

788K

local

788KState 8.7MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.24%

local

0.24%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

75.9%

local

75.9%State 75.6%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$93,757

local

$93,757State $99,933National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

8.5%

local

8.5%State 10.0%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

38.7%

local

38.7%State 42.3%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

69.9%

local

69.9%State 67.3%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

39.1 yrs

local

39.1 yrsState 39.3 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

14.5%

local

14.5%State 15.9%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

16.6%

local

16.6%State 16.7%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

7.6%

local

7.6%State 13.1%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

10.2%

local

10.2%State 17.4%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

89.8%

local

89.8%State 82.6%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in VA-02

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

61.2%

vs Previous

+0.4pp

Voting-Age Pop

597,935

History

2008–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is VA-02?

TossupAvg margin: D+1.3 (last 3 elections)

2008

R+1.2

2012

R+2.3

2016

R+3.3

2020

D+4.7

2024

D+2.6

Elasticity

8.0pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

D+0.1

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in VA-02 split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyModerate splitting (64/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs House	D+2.6	R+3.8	6.4pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 7.8pp

Virginia Comparison Set

Other Virginia Districts

Compare the rest of the delegation at a glance, with each card anchored to the latest House margin on current district pages.

20 sibling districts

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