explore / Contest Page
Read the current governor state first, then inspect ratings, polling, markets, fundraising, and history for Nevada in one evidence flow.
Evidence & provenance
Source owners
Akashic Edge race ratings, polling ingests, Polymarket odds, fundraising files, and U.S. Census context.
Freshness
Rendered Mar 17, 2026 from the latest stored polling, market, and race-rating snapshots.
Boundary scope
2026 statewide race page for the current state and office only.
Claim type
Manual race ratings, stored live-market snapshots, polling context, and deterministic demographic history.
Polling and market panels fail closed. If a feed is missing or stale, this page states that directly instead of implying current coverage.
Lombardo and Ford are dead-tied at 41-41 in the December Emerson poll, with 18% undecided and Lombardo's own approval underwater (34/36). Lombardo has a slight edge among independents (+8) and Trump's endorsement, but Trump is 15 points underwater in Nevada, making that endorsement a mixed bag. Ford leads with Hispanic voters by 16 points and women by 5. The critical asymmetry is money: Lombardo has $15M across his campaign and two PACs vs. Ford's $1.5M cash on hand — a 10:1 advantage. The top voter issues — cost of living (39%), housing affordability (16%), jobs — all cut against the incumbent. Nevada hasn't reelected a governor since 2006. Cook rates this Toss Up. Ford needs to close the fundraising gap fast or the environment won't matter.
Updated 2026-03-03