Akashic EdgeAKASHIC EDGE
ElectionsCandidates
HistorianCartographer2026 ForecastArticlesAPIPricing

Latest Articles

    View all articles →

    Browse by Category

      Data Tools

      • Elections
      • Candidates
      • The Historian
      • The Cartographer
      • American Nations
      • States & Counties
      • Congressional Districts

      About

      Akashic HQ provides deep political data analysis covering 165 years of U.S. elections.

      • Data Sources & Methodology
      • Pricing
      • API Documentation
      • Contact

      © 2026 Akashic HQ. All rights reserved.

      Data: MIT Election Lab, VEST, Census Bureau
      Home/Elections/2026/US Senate/Texas
      2026 ForecastLean R
      2026·US Senate·Texas

      Texas US Senate

      Incumbent
      RJohn Cornyn
      Senate Class 2

      Race Analysis

      Beto O'Rourke proved Texas was within reach, if only for a moment. Despite its turn red in 2024, the very people Trump is losing are often his new supporters in Texas. If Talarico beats Crockett — if Crockett's the nominee, it's immediately Safe GOP. Only a chance for Dems with a perfect storm: candidate misfires after a contentious primary, all compounding.

      Updated 2026-02-18

      Candidates & Primaries

      Democratic Candidates

      TBDDDeclared

      Dem primary: Talarico vs. Crockett

      Democratic PrimaryPolymarket

      Will Beto O'Rourke be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?

      Data from Polymarket prediction markets

      Republican Candidates

      John CornynRIncumbent

      Senior senator from Texas since 2002

      C+4W-0L4 races
      Full profile →

      State Demographics

      Texas vs. National · Pop. 30.2M

      White (non-Hispanic)39.1%
      National: 57.4%
      Black12.2%
      National: 12.2%
      Hispanic/Latino39.7%
      National: 19.3%
      Asian5.6%
      National: 6.0%
      College Degree33.7%
      National: 35.6%
      Median Income$80,443
      National: $83,960
      Median Age35.7
      National: 39.1

      Seat History

      US Senate in Texas(Class II)

      2024
      Ted CruzREP
      R+8.5
      2020
      John CornynREP
      R+9.6
      2018
      Ted CruzREP
      R+2.6
      2014
      John CornynREP
      R+27.2
      2012
      Ted CruzREP
      R+15.8
      2008
      John CornynREP
      R+12.0
      2006
      Kay Bailey HutchisonREP
      R+25.6
      2002
      John CornynREP
      R+12.0
      2000
      Kay Bailey HutchisonREP
      R+32.7
      1996
      Phil GrammREP
      R+10.8
      1994
      Kay Bailey HutchisonREP
      R+22.5
      1993(S)
      Kay Bailey HutchisonREP
      R+34.7
      1990
      Phil GrammREP
      R+22.8
      1988
      Lloyd BentsenDEM
      D+19.2
      1984
      Phil GrammREP
      R+17.2
      View all US Senate history for Texas →

      Also in Texas, 2026

      Governor
      Safe R
      ← 2026 Forecast Overview
      ← 2026 Forecast OverviewTexas profileAll elections