How did Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+5.5. Kamala D Harris received 150,967 votes and Donald Trump received 168,814 out of 323,647 total votes cast, a 0.8-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA's political history?

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA has 40 presidential elections on record, spanning 1868 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968. The largest single-election swing was 47.6 points in 1932.

What are the demographics of Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA?

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA has a population of 2,203,982 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 79.4% non-Hispanic white, 5.2% Hispanic, 9.9% Black. About 30% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $60,703.

Which places are most similar to Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar metro areas to Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA are Rochester, MN, Raleigh-Cary, NC, Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Live · Metropolitan area

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

State capital anchors a metro split between government workers and rural exurbs

Harrisburg's concentration of state employees and Dauphin County's suburban precincts pull the metro toward competitive margins, while Cumberland County's faster-growing exurbs have trended reliably Republican in recent cycles by double digits.

Presidential margin · 2024

Data unavailable for this race.

Race data unavailable

Geography

Race data unavailable

No current race for this office.

2024FIPS 25420

Population2.2M

Median ageU.S. 38.9y

39.5y▲ 0.6

Bachelor's+U.S. 35%

29.7%▼ 5.3

White79.4%
Black9.9%
Hispanic5.2%
Asian3.4%
Two or more3.3%
Other1.9%

Trajectory · 2008–2024

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PABaseline

Cycle2024

Open in Cartographer

Constituent Counties

Open in Cartographer

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Reads like Rochester, MN, Raleigh-Cary, NC, and Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI.

8 visible matches

Rochester, MN

Educated rural competitive 2

R+1.0

Similarity score94%

Raleigh-Cary, NC

Educated rural competitive 2

D+16.3

Similarity score93%

Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI

Educated rural competitive 2

D+9.4

Similarity score93%

Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI

Educated rural competitive 2

R+8.2

Similarity score92%

Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA

Educated rural competitive 2

D+1.6

Similarity score92%

Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

Educated rural competitive 2

D+23.3

Similarity score92%

Rochester, NY

Educated rural competitive 2

D+8.5

Similarity score92%

Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY

Educated rural competitive 2

D+9.9

Similarity score91%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total	Share
Dauphin	290K	D+5.9	78,327	69,474	149,526	11.6%
Dauphin	272K	D+5.9	78,327	69,474	149,526	11.6%
Cumberland	268K	R+9.4	66,255	80,267	148,396	11.5%
Dauphin	256K	D+5.9	78,327	69,474	149,526	11.6%
Dauphin	252K	D+5.9	78,327	69,474	149,526	11.6%
Cumberland	244K	R+9.4	66,255	80,267	148,396	11.5%
Cumberland	228K	R+9.4	66,255	80,267	148,396	11.5%
Cumberland	214K	R+9.4	66,255	80,267	148,396	11.5%
Perry	46K	R+49.3	6,385	19,073	25,725	2.0%
Perry	46K	R+49.3	6,385	19,073	25,725	2.0%
Perry	45K	R+49.3	6,385	19,073	25,725	2.0%
Perry	44K	R+49.3	6,385	19,073	25,725	2.0%

12 countiesTotal votes: 1,294,588

Historian Query

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Explore Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PACensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 79.4%Black 9.9%Hispanic 5.2%Asian 3.4%Multiracial 2.0%

Group	Local	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	79.4%	57.4%
▶Black / African American(14)	9.9%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(17)	5.2%	19.3%
▶Asian(6)	3.4%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	2.0%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	0.6%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)	0.2%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

41.4%(250.3K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	12.8%	31.0%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	12.0%	29.0%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	11.2%	27.0%	—	—
Other	3.4%	8.1%	—	—
Black Protestant	1.6%	3.9%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	0.5%	1.2%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.4%	1.1%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	58.6%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Explore Catholic adherence nationally

Who lives in the Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA metro area? 2,203,982 residents across 12 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

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Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA vs National2.2M residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

2.2M

local

2.2MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.66%

local

0.66%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

39.7%

local

39.7%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$60,703

local

$60,703National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

9.6%

local

9.6%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

29.7%

local

29.7%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

68.9%

local

68.9%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

39.5 yrs

local

39.5 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.0%

local

12.0%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.7%

local

12.7%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

5.7%

local

5.7%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

9.3%

local

9.3%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

90.7%

local

90.7%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.

2024 Turnout

71.2%

vs Previous

+2.2pp

Eligible Non-Voters

131K · 28.8%

Citizen VAP

454,617

History

1988–2024

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyModerate splitting (64/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs Senate	R+5.5	R+4.7	0.8pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 7.8pp

Containing Geography

Located In

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA sits inside these higher-level geographies.

Pennsylvania(State)

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