A once-reliably Republican metro that shifted Democratic as its suburbs diversified
San Diego's large active-duty and veteran population coexists with a majority-minority electorate shaped by Latino growth along the South Bay corridor, producing a metro that swings on suburban turnout in mid-cycle elections.
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 48.6% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 31.4% | 19.3% |
▶Asian(6) | 10.8% | 6.0% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 5.1% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.2% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 2.3% | 0.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3) | 0.8% | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(7) | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +27.9pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.9% | 55.2% | — | — | |
| 9.5% | 22.8% | — | — | |
| 6.6% | 15.9% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 2.1% | 5.0% | — | — |
| 1.5% | 3.7% | — | — | |
| 0.6% | 1.4% | — | — | |
| 0.4% | 1.0% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 58.5% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA metro area? 12,343,506 residents across 4 counties.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | D+16.8 | D+13.4 | 3.4pp |