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Warrensburg, MO

College town and military community share a small-city electorate

Warrensburg anchors Johnson County, where the University of Central Missouri and nearby Whiteman Air Force Base produce an unusually mixed demographic base for a rural Missouri market, tempering the region's otherwise lopsided Republican margins.

Presidential margin · 2024
Data unavailable for this race.
Race data unavailable
Geography
Race data unavailable
No current race for this office.
2024FIPS 47660
Population209K
Median ageU.S. 38.9y
29.6y▼ 9.3
Bachelor's+U.S. 35%
26.2%▼ 8.8
  • White86.7%
  • Black4.3%
  • Hispanic3.9%
  • Two or more3.8%
  • Asian1.5%
  • Other1.1%
  • Native0.5%
Trajectory · 2008–2024
Warrensburg, MOBaseline
Reagan → Bush IIObama → TrumpR+40R+30R+20R+1002020D+5R+45
Cycle2024
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Constituent Counties

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Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Reads like Maryville, MO, Cedar City, UT, and Hays, KS.
8 visible matches
Constituent Geography

Counties in Warrensburg, MO

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.
Sort:
CountyPop.MarginDemRepTotalShare
Johnson55K
R+39.6
6,96016,29823,60225.0%
Johnson54K
R+39.6
6,96016,29823,60225.0%
Johnson52K
R+39.6
6,96016,29823,60225.0%
Johnson48K
R+39.6
6,96016,29823,60225.0%
4 countiesTotal votes: 94,408
Historian Query

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Explore Warrensburg, MO's political evolution with the Historian
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Warrensburg, MOCensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 86.7%Black 4.3%Hispanic 3.9%Multiracial 3.0%Asian 1.5%Native American 0.5%
GroupWarrensburg, MONational
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
86.7%57.4%
▶Black / African American(9)
4.3%12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(12)
3.9%19.3%
Multiracial / Other
3.0%4.0%
▶Asian(6)
1.5%6.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(3)
0.5%0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(3)
0.1%0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2)
0.1%0.2%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:
28.9%(15.8K people)
U.S. Religion Census 2020
Browse all religions

Catholic-Evangelical edge: -62.2pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Evangelical-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Republican-leaning rural and exurban communities.

Ecological pattern — how to read this

Reflects patterns in counties where this religious tradition concentrates — not a claim about individual voters.

Values are derived by joining Religion Census 2020 (U.S. Religion Data Archive) with certified election results at the county level. That means we know what counties with more or fewer of this group did — not how any individual voted.

This is known as ecological inference. It is a valid way to surface geographic correlation but must not be read as a personal-vote claim about anyone in the group.

Tradition% Pop% AdherentsUS PopUS Adherents
Evangelical Protestant
19.9%68.9%——
Mainline Protestant
3.5%12.2%——
Catholic
3.2%11.1%——
Other
1.5%5.1%——
LDS (Mormon)
0.8%2.9%——
Black Protestant
0.8%2.7%——
Non-religiousPopulation
71.1%———
Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.
Explore Evangelical Protestant adherence nationally

Who lives in the Warrensburg, MO metro area? 209,216 residents across 4 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Export CSVPro
Warrensburg, MO vs National209K residents

26% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 7pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
209K
local
209KNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
0.06%
local
0.06%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
36.6%
local
36.6%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
$49,637
local
$49,637National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
14.9%
local
14.9%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
26.2%
local
26.2%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
62.0%
local
62.0%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
29.6 yrs
local
29.6 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
21.4%
local
21.4%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
9.0%
local
9.0%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
3.0%
local
3.0%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
4.8%
local
4.8%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
95.2%
local
95.2%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in Warrensburg, MO

Turnout % = votes cast ÷ citizen voting-age population (CVAP). Source: CVAP Special Tab 2020-2024.
2024 Turnout
56.5%
vs Previous
+1.2pp
Eligible Non-Voters
18K · 43.5%
Citizen VAP
41,797
History
1988–2024
Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in Warrensburg, MO split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
ConsistencyHeavy splitting (37/100)
2024 Office Comparisons
OfficesMargin AMargin BSplit
Senate vs GovernorR+33.4R+39.66.3pp
President vs SenateR+39.6R+33.46.2pp
President vs GovernorR+39.6R+39.60.1pp
Average divergence across office pairs: 12.0pp
Containing Geography

Located In

Warrensburg, MO sits inside these higher-level geographies.
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