A deindustrialized metro where union heritage still shapes the electorate
Youngstown-Warren anchors the Mahoning Valley, a region that spent decades as a Democratic stronghold on the strength of steel-industry labor but has shifted markedly toward Republican margins in federal races since 2016.
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahoning | 258K | R+9.4 | 50,636 | 61,249 | 112,705 | 13.5% |
| Mahoning | 241K | R+9.4 | 50,636 | 61,249 | 112,705 | 13.5% |
| Mahoning | 233K | R+9.4 | 50,636 | 61,249 | 112,705 | 13.5% |
| Mahoning | 226K | R+9.4 | 50,636 | 61,249 | 112,705 | 13.5% |
| Trumbull | 225K | R+16.8 | 39,758 | 55,983 | 96,532 | 11.5% |
| Trumbull | 213K | R+16.8 | 39,758 | 55,983 | 96,532 | 11.5% |
| Trumbull | 205K | R+16.8 | 39,758 | 55,983 | 96,532 | 11.5% |
| Trumbull | 201K | R+16.8 | 39,758 | 55,983 | 96,532 | 11.5% |
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 82.2% | 57.4% |
▶Black / African American(8) | 12.0% | 12.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 3.1% | 19.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.9% | 4.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.7% | 0.9% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.6% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.1% | 40.1% | — | — | |
| 15.5% | 30.9% | — | — | |
| 6.7% | 13.3% | — | — | |
| 4.9% | 9.9% | — | — | |
| 2.0% | 4.0% | — | — | |
| 0.9% | 1.8% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.2% | 0.4% | — | — |
Non-religiousPopulation | 50.0% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Youngstown-Warren, OH metro area? 1,802,435 residents across 8 counties.
20% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 14pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+15 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+12.8 | R+2.8 | 10.0pp |