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Dan Sullivan

Won 4 consecutive elections as house from Alaska

Republican
US HouseState SenateUS SenateState House
Electoral Grade
—
Requires 3+ graded races
5
Races
4-1
W-L (80%)
-34.6
Avg Margin
2006–2024
Career Span
Best: +-24.7 (2022 State Senate)Worst: -44.5 (2006 State House)
80%
Win Rate
4
Win Streak
18 yrs
Career Span
15K
Career Votes

Evidence & provenance

Source owners

Certified contest returns, candidate career records, and Akashic Edge deterministic grading inputs.

Freshness

Rendered Apr 14, 2026 from the latest candidate, contest, and forecast tables loaded in Akashic Edge.

Boundary scope

Candidate-level profile spanning every contest recorded for this person in Akashic Edge.

Claim type

Deterministic summaries, calculated grades, and certified election history. No freeform AI prose.

Source chain

MethodologyCertified contest returnsCandidate grade inputs
Open methodology
2026
Lean D
AK SenateIncumbent

Peltola lost her 2024 House race by just 1 point in a state Trump carried by 13 — a massive overperformance that makes her a formidable Senate recruit. Sullivan won re-election by 13 in 2020, but he's never faced a candidate with Peltola's crossover appeal and name recognition among Alaska Natives and rural voters. She'll face a similarly strong opponent in a much more favorable national environment than 2024, though Alaska's idiosyncratic politics mean national trends don't always translate here. Ranked-choice voting gives Peltola a structural advantage by consolidating moderate votes. Lean D.

vs.Mary Peltola
View race detailsOpen polling tracker

Current Polling

Live race polling for Dan Sullivan’s currently tracked contest. These snapshots update with the broader polling layer, so candidate pages inherit the current environment automatically.

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AK Senate

Incumbent context with current polling, confidence, recent trend, and raw poll table.

Race pagePolling tracker

2026 Alaska Senate General Election

Polling tracker for the 2026 Alaska senate general election.

1 pollsSparse

Field Average

Mary Peltola
Average 52.4% · Latest 52.4%
1 poll
Dan Sullivan
Average 47.6% · Latest 47.6%
1 poll
Quality

Field Average

Average support across the current primary field.

All polling trackers2026 generic ballotTracker permalink

Career Margin Trend2 races

State House
State Senate
R+40R+20EvenD+20D+402006: R+44.5 - Click to view2022: R+24.7 - Click to view20062022

Career Timeline

2024 US HouseMassachusettsDistrict 9
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Candidate Votes
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Vote %
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Total Votes
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Margin
Top opponent: BlanksOTH

Key Insights

3 insights generated

Deterministic highlights from career record, margins, and standout performances.

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Geographic Performance

5 races with county data

County-level results, strongest and weakest counties, and performance by county type.

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County Results Table

Sortable, searchable table of every county result for each race.

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Demographic Coalition Analysis

5 races available

Scatter plots correlating county performance with demographics: race, education, income, foreign-born.

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Opponents Faced4 opponents

BlanksOTH
0-12024 House
Chenoa SummersDEM
1-02022 State Senate(-24.7)
Al GrossDEM
1-02020 Senate
Norman L MajorREP
1-02006 State House(-44.5)

Primary History

1 primary

Primary election results, win rates, field sizes, and vote share.

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Historian Query

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Interactive AI-powered chat about Dan Sullivan's career, opponents, and performance.

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