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      Data: MIT Election Lab, VEST, Census Bureau
      Home/Elections/2026/US Senate/Alaska
      2026 ForecastLean D
      2026·US Senate·Alaska

      Alaska US Senate

      Incumbent
      RDan Sullivan
      Senate Class 2

      Race Analysis

      Peltola benefits from Trump's low approval and her large overperformance despite the close 2024 loss — lost by 2 in a Trump +13 state. Given about equally formidable opposition, the math looks good for Peltola taking out Sullivan.

      Updated 2026-02-18

      Candidates & Primaries

      Democratic Candidates

      Mary PeltolaDDeclared

      Former U.S. Representative from Alaska

      2W-1L3 races
      Full profile →

      Republican Candidates

      Dan SullivanRIncumbent

      Junior senator from Alaska since 2015

      6W-2L8 races
      Full profile →

      State Demographics

      Alaska vs. National · Pop. 736K

      White (non-Hispanic)57.7%
      National: 57.4%
      Black3.0%
      National: 12.2%
      Hispanic/Latino7.3%
      National: 19.3%
      Asian6.4%
      National: 6.0%
      College Degree31.4%
      National: 35.6%
      Median Income$93,813
      National: $83,960
      Median Age36
      National: 39.1

      Seat History

      US Senate in Alaska(Class I)

      2022
      Lisa A MurkowskiREP
      R+100.0
      2020
      Dan SullivanREP
      R+12.7
      2016
      Lisa A MurkowskiREP
      ---
      2014
      Dan SullivanREP
      ---
      2010
      Lisa A MurkowskiREP
      ---
      2008
      Mark BegichDEM
      ---
      2004
      Lisa A MurkowskiREP
      ---
      2002
      Ted StevensREP
      ---
      1996
      Frank MurkowskiREP
      ---
      1996
      Ted StevensREP
      ---
      View all US Senate history for Alaska →

      Also in Alaska, 2026

      Governor
      Tilt D      ← 2026 Forecast Overview
      ← 2026 Forecast OverviewAlaska profileAll elections