Graham County, Arizona: Republican Migration
Arizona · Presidential Elections 1912–2024
R+48.0
2024 Margin
R+3.4%
2020→2024 Swing
R since 1968
Voting Streak
🏠 GOP Migration
Classification
39K
Population
Graham County, Arizona voted R+48.0 for Donald Trump in 2024, with Trump receiving 11,177 votes (73.46%). This represented a R+3.4% swing toward Republicans compared to 2020. The county has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968.
Electoral Behavior
🏠
Republican MigrationView all
Fast-growing counties attracting conservative migrants, shifting further red. Concentrated in ID, UT, and parts of TX/GA. These areas are both growing and becoming more Republican relative to national trends.
Volatility
12.7
Elasticity
Inelastic
Trend
-1.4/yr (red)
Quick Stats
2024 ResultR+48.0
2020→2024 SwingR+3.4%
Voting StreakR since 1968
Elections on Record29
Demographics
Population38,533
Median Age
34.1(US: 38.4)
College (BA+)
19.5%(US: 47.9%)
Median Income
$64,089(US: $78k)
White (non-Hisp)
53.0%(US: 57.5%)
Hispanic
30.3%(US: 18.6%)
Black
1.4%(US: 12.3%)
Homeownership
73.5%(US: 64.2%)
Poverty Rate
17.7%(US: 12.4%)
Veterans
5.8%(US: 6.4%)
Presidential Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25.4%(3,867) | 73.5%(11,177) | R+48.0 | -3.4 |
| 2020 | 26.8%(4,034) | 71.5%(10,749) | R+44.7 | -6.2 |
| 2016 | 26.9%(3,301) | 65.3%(8,025) | R+38.5 | -0.9 |
| 2012 | 30.3%(3,609) | 67.8%(8,076) | R+37.5 | +3.2 |
| 2008 | 29.0%(3,487) | 69.8%(8,376) | R+40.7 | -0.8 |
| 2004 | 29.7%(3,185) | 69.7%(7,467) | R+39.9 | -12.5 |
| 2000 | 34.7%(3,355) | 62.2%(6,007) | R+27.4 | -24.4 |
| 1996 | 42.4%(3,938) | 45.4%(4,222) | R+3.1 | +5.0 |
| 1992 | 35.0%(3,391) | 43.0%(4,169) | R+8.0 | +11.8 |
| 1988 | 39.4%(3,407) | 59.2%(5,120) | R+19.8 | +5.9 |
Senate Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 31.8%(3,368) | 64.8%(6,870) | R+33.0 | -2.4 |
| 2012 | 32.2%(3,771) | 62.9%(7,352) | R+30.6 | +6.8 |
| 2006 | 28.0%(2,194) | 65.4%(5,127) | R+37.4 | +47.9 |
| 2000 | 0.0%(0) | 85.4%(7,520) | R+85.4 | -61.6 |
| 1994 | 35.9%(2,771) | 59.7%(4,607) | R+23.8 | -52.3 |
| 1988 | 63.5%(5,603) | 34.9%(3,084) | D+28.5 | +6.2 |
| 1982 | 60.4%(3,994) | 38.1%(2,517) | D+22.3 | +19.3 |
| 1976 | 50.8%(3,507) | 47.7%(3,295) | D+3.1 | +9.4 |
| 1970 | 46.8%(2,032) | 53.2%(2,309) | R+6.4 | -9.7 |
| 1964 | 51.7%(2,719) | 48.3%(2,543) | D+3.3 | +12.9 |
Governor Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 24.2%(2,569) | 73.2%(7,776) | R+49.0 | -6.8 |
| 2014 | 26.4%(1,919) | 68.6%(4,985) | R+42.2 | -8.0 |
| 2010 | 31.3%(2,865) | 65.5%(5,994) | R+34.2 | -47.5 |
| 2006 | 55.6%(4,348) | 42.3%(3,306) | D+13.3 | +33.0 |
| 2002 | 36.6%(2,924) | 56.3%(4,491) | R+19.6 | +1.4 |
| 1998 | 37.9%(2,780) | 58.9%(4,324) | R+21.0 | -2.2 |
| 1994 | 39.7%(3,101) | 58.5%(4,570) | R+18.8 | -6.7 |
| 1991 | 43.9%(2,752) | 56.1%(3,512) | R+12.1 | +0.5 |
| 1986 | 34.5%(2,381) | 47.1%(3,257) | R+12.7 | -42.8 |
| 1982 | 62.1%(4,127) | 31.9%(2,123) | D+30.1 | +39.1 |
Primary Election History
| Year | Party | Winner | Runner-up | Nominee? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Dem | Joe Biden(82.1%) | Other(14.0%) | ✓ |
| 2024 | GOP | Donald Trump(86.7%) | Nikki Haley(10.1%) | ✓ |
| 2020 | Dem | Joe Biden(46.9%) | Bernie Sanders(25.4%) | ✓ |
| 2016 | Dem | Hillary Clinton(48.4%) | Bernie Sanders(45.1%) | ✓ |
| 2016 | GOP | Ted Cruz(42.5%) | Donald Trump(39.1%) | ✗ |
| 2012 | Dem | Barack Obama(100.0%) | — | — |
| 2008 | Dem | Hillary Clinton(45.8%) | Barack Obama(40.3%) | ✗ |
✓ = County picked eventual party nominee