Madison County, Montana: Northern Rural Secular
Montana · Presidential Elections 1892–2024
R+45.3
2024 Margin
R+5.5%
2020→2024 Swing
R since 1944
Voting Streak
🌾 N. Rural
Classification
9K
Population
Madison County, Montana voted R+45.3 for Donald Trump in 2024, with Trump receiving 4,615 votes (71.43%). This represented a R+5.5% swing toward Republicans compared to 2020. The county has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1944.
Electoral Behavior
🌾
Northern Rural SecularView all
Rural counties in the Upper Midwest (MN/IA/WI/IN/MO/IL/MI) that voted for Obama in 2008 but have swung dramatically toward Republicans. These historically Democratic, secular farming communities have realigned.
Volatility
3.9
Elasticity
Highly elastic
Trend
-0.7/yr
Quick Stats
2024 ResultR+45.3
2020→2024 SwingR+5.5%
Voting StreakR since 1944
Elections on Record34
Demographics
Population8,623
Median Age
54.3(US: 38.4)
College (BA+)
43.4%(US: 47.9%)
Median Income
$61,226(US: $78k)
White (non-Hisp)
91.5%(US: 57.5%)
Hispanic
3.5%(US: 18.6%)
Homeownership
80.6%(US: 64.2%)
Poverty Rate
6.8%(US: 12.4%)
Veterans
10.4%(US: 6.4%)
Presidential Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26.1%(1,689) | 71.4%(4,615) | R+45.3 | -5.5 |
| 2020 | 29.1%(1,771) | 68.8%(4,191) | R+39.8 | +4.9 |
| 2016 | 24.9%(1,180) | 69.5%(3,297) | R+44.6 | -4.0 |
| 2012 | 28.4%(1,289) | 69.1%(3,130) | R+40.6 | -14.0 |
| 2008 | 35.2%(1,607) | 61.8%(2,822) | R+26.6 | +21.3 |
| 2004 | 25.0%(983) | 72.9%(2,868) | R+47.9 | +4.0 |
| 2000 | 20.7%(758) | 72.7%(2,656) | R+51.9 | -22.5 |
| 1996 | 27.3%(955) | 56.8%(1,984) | R+29.4 | -10.2 |
| 1992 | 23.6%(779) | 42.9%(1,415) | R+19.3 | +19.9 |
| 1988 | 29.5%(878) | 68.6%(2,045) | R+39.2 | +13.0 |
Senate Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 31.1%(2,025) | 67.4%(4,388) | R+36.3 | -2.1 |
| 2020 | 32.9%(2,015) | 67.1%(4,103) | R+34.1 | -13.8 |
| 2018 | 38.1%(1,890) | 58.4%(2,898) | R+20.3 | +21.9 |
| 2014 | 27.9%(1,014) | 70.1%(2,549) | R+42.2 | -16.5 |
| 2012 | 33.2%(1,516) | 58.9%(2,690) | R+25.7 | -59.1 |
| 2008 | 66.7%(2,978) | 33.3%(1,488) | D+33.4 | +63.3 |
| 2006 | 33.6%(1,225) | 63.6%(2,315) | R+29.9 | -40.8 |
| 2002 | 52.7%(1,624) | 41.9%(1,291) | D+10.8 | +42.9 |
| 2000 | 33.0%(1,207) | 65.1%(2,379) | R+32.1 | -8.0 |
| 1996 | 34.6%(1,216) | 58.6%(2,060) | R+24.0 | +36.0 |
Governor Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26.7%(1,726) | 71.3%(4,611) | R+44.6 | -9.8 |
| 2020 | 30.8%(1,877) | 65.6%(3,992) | R+34.7 | -19.1 |
| 2016 | 40.6%(1,982) | 56.3%(2,745) | R+15.6 | +13.9 |
| 2012 | 33.3%(1,509) | 62.8%(2,846) | R+29.5 | -43.3 |
| 2008 | 55.8%(2,529) | 41.9%(1,902) | D+13.8 | +37.5 |
| 2004 | 36.2%(1,416) | 59.9%(2,340) | R+23.6 | +13.4 |
| 2000 | 30.5%(1,115) | 67.5%(2,468) | R+37.0 | +36.3 |
| 1996 | 13.3%(465) | 86.7%(3,018) | R+73.3 | -41.5 |
| 1992 | 34.1%(1,111) | 65.9%(2,148) | R+31.8 | +1.4 |
| 1988 | 32.5%(974) | 65.7%(1,971) | R+33.2 | -55.4 |
Primary Election History
| Year | Party | Winner | Runner-up | Nominee? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | GOP | Donald Trump(92.0%) | Other(8.0%) | ✓ |
| 2020 | Dem | Joe Biden(80.3%) | Bernie Sanders(10.6%) | ✓ |
| 2016 | Dem | Bernie Sanders(51.6%) | Hillary Clinton(44.6%) | ✗ |
| 2016 | GOP | Donald Trump(74.7%) | John Kasich(10.3%) | ✓ |
| 2008 | Dem | Barack Obama(62.9%) | Hillary Clinton(33.7%) | ✓ |
✓ = County picked eventual party nominee