Stafford County, Virginia: Professional Migration
Virginia · Presidential Elections 1892–2024
D+0.8
2024 Margin
R+2.5%
2020→2024 Swing
D since 2020
Voting Streak
🏘️ Prof. Migration
Classification
157K
Population
Stafford County, Virginia voted D+0.8 for Kamala Harris in 2024, with Harris receiving 41,252 votes (49.38%). This represented a R+2.5% swing toward Republicans compared to 2020. The county has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2020.
Electoral Behavior
🏘️
Professional MigrationView all
Growing metro exurbs and suburbs receiving educated professionals from cities. These areas are shifting blue as remote work and urban flight bring liberal voters. Examples: Atlanta suburbs, DFW exurbs, Denver metro.
Volatility
4.4
Elasticity
Highly elastic
Trend
+0.6/yr
Quick Stats
2024 ResultD+0.8
2020→2024 SwingR+2.5%
Voting StreakD since 2020
Elections on Record34
Demographics
Population156,927
Median Age
36.4(US: 38.4)
College (BA+)
61.4%(US: 47.9%)
Median Income
$128,036(US: $78k)
White (non-Hisp)
53.7%(US: 57.5%)
Hispanic
15.9%(US: 18.6%)
Black
19.4%(US: 12.3%)
Asian
3.8%(US: 5.7%)
Homeownership
80.8%(US: 64.2%)
Poverty Rate
5.1%(US: 12.4%)
Veterans
17.5%(US: 6.4%)
Presidential Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 49.4%(41,252) | 48.6%(40,590) | D+0.8 | -2.5 |
| 2020 | 50.5%(40,245) | 47.3%(37,636) | D+3.3 | +12.3 |
| 2016 | 42.3%(27,908) | 51.4%(33,868) | R+9.0 | -0.3 |
| 2012 | 44.9%(27,182) | 53.6%(32,480) | R+8.8 | -2.4 |
| 2008 | 46.4%(25,716) | 52.7%(29,221) | R+6.3 | +18.2 |
| 2004 | 37.4%(17,208) | 62.0%(28,500) | R+24.6 | -0.8 |
| 2000 | 36.8%(12,596) | 60.5%(20,731) | R+23.8 | -7.7 |
| 1996 | 38.0%(9,902) | 54.0%(14,098) | R+16.1 | +3.3 |
| 1992 | 31.0%(7,718) | 50.4%(12,528) | R+19.3 | +19.4 |
| 1988 | 30.4%(5,380) | 69.1%(12,234) | R+38.7 | +1.0 |
Senate Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 51.7%(42,603) | 48.3%(39,764) | D+3.5 | -0.6 |
| 2020 | 52.0%(40,566) | 47.9%(37,389) | D+4.1 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 50.9%(28,536) | 47.0%(26,368) | D+3.9 | +22.6 |
| 2014 | 39.5%(13,436) | 58.2%(19,790) | R+18.7 | -11.7 |
| 2012 | 46.4%(27,820) | 53.3%(31,997) | R+7.0 | -26.1 |
| 2008 | 59.0%(32,150) | 39.8%(21,695) | D+19.2 | +31.2 |
| 2006 | 43.1%(13,982) | 55.1%(17,885) | R+12.0 | +72.3 |
| 2002 | 0.0%(0) | 84.3%(13,264) | R+84.3 | -66.0 |
| 2000 | 40.8%(13,908) | 59.1%(20,163) | R+18.3 | -9.9 |
| 1996 | 45.5%(12,192) | 54.0%(14,455) | R+8.4 | +6.8 |
Governor Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55.9%(35,327) | 43.9%(27,774) | D+11.9 | +17.1 |
| 2017 | 46.8%(19,011) | 52.0%(21,123) | R+5.2 | +9.3 |
| 2013 | 40.0%(13,657) | 54.5%(18,595) | R+14.5 | +20.5 |
| 2009 | 32.4%(9,226) | 67.4%(19,164) | R+35.0 | -24.4 |
| 2005 | 43.6%(10,924) | 54.1%(13,559) | R+10.5 | +2.4 |
| 2001 | 43.2%(9,248) | 56.1%(12,019) | R+12.9 | +9.2 |
| 1997 | 38.1%(7,224) | 60.2%(11,416) | R+22.1 | +14.3 |
| 1993 | 31.4%(5,382) | 67.8%(11,631) | R+36.5 | -17.0 |
| 1989 | 40.3%(5,775) | 59.7%(8,565) | R+19.4 | -20.4 |
| 1985 | 50.5%(5,078) | 49.5%(4,980) | D+1.0 | +7.0 |
Primary Election History
| Year | Party | Winner | Runner-up | Nominee? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Dem | Joe Biden(54.7%) | Bernie Sanders(24.0%) | ✓ |
| 2016 | Dem | Hillary Clinton(60.9%) | Bernie Sanders(38.2%) | ✓ |
| 2008 | Dem | Barack Obama(62.8%) | Hillary Clinton(36.4%) | ✓ |
✓ = County picked eventual party nominee