2026 Elections/House

2026 House Forecast

Probabilistic ratings for the House now live under the 2026 election cycle. District detail remains forecast-first for now, while the cycle hub gives House a consistent home alongside Senate, governor, and statewide pages.

Updated February 25, 2026

Senate Governor House

Seat Distribution

Exact probability of each Democratic seat count — computed from 435 independent district ratings.

10,000 Simulations

Each dot is one simulated election with a correlated national wave. Blue dots = Democratic majority. Red dots = Republican majority.

Redistricting Uncertainty

D seat range depending on court rulings and referenda

-17D worst218 for majority15D best

-17

Worst Case

-4

EV-Adjusted

Best Case

Key Swing Factors

New York+5D @ 31%

Missouri-1D @ 32%

⚖️

SCOTUS VRA ruling pending (June)

Louisiana v. Callais could gut Section 2 — eliminating 7 majority-minority seats (AL-2, LA-2, MS-1, SC-1, FL-1)

Competitive Races (132)

Sort by:

U.S. House

North Carolina — CD 1

Tilt D

Don Davis (D)

Don Davis(D)Laurie Buckhout(R)

Pres’08Obama +2.7’12Obama +1.7’16Trump +4.3’20Trump +7.6’24Trump +11.6

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Texas — CD 35

Tilt D

Open seat (Greg Casar not running)

John Lira(D)John Lujan(R)Josh Cortez(R)

Pres’08McCain +2.3’12Romney +4.8’16Trump +5.0’20Trump +1.9’24Trump +10.6

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Arizona — CD 2

Tilt D

Eli Crane (R)

Eli Crane(R)Jonathan Nez(D)

Pres’08McCain +7.9’12Romney +9.2’16Trump +10.2’20Trump +7.9’24Trump +14.9

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-03

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U.S. House

Ohio — CD 10

Tilt R

Mike Turner (R)

Mike Turner(R)Kristina Knickerbocker(D)

Pres’08McCain +1.1’12Romney +3.2’16Trump +8.5’20Trump +5.8’24Trump +7.8

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Ohio — CD 15

Tilt R

Mike Carey (R)

Mike Carey(R)Adam Miller(D)

Pres’08Obama +8.6’12Obama +10.2’16Trump +10.4’20Trump +7.3’24Trump +9.9

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Ohio — CD 1

Lean D

Greg Landsman (D)

Greg Landsman(D)Holly Adams(R)

Pres’08McCain +6.5’12Romney +8.5’16Trump +3.2’20Biden +0.2’24Trump +2.6

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

New York — CD 17

Lean D

Mike Lawler (R)

Mike Lawler(R)Beth Davidson(D)Cait Conley(D)

Pres’08Obama +7.7’12Obama +5.2’16Clinton +8.1’20Biden +10.1’24Harris +0.6

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Pennsylvania — CD 1

Lean D

Brian Fitzpatrick (R)

Ashley Ehasz(D)Brian Fitzpatrick(R)

Pres’08Obama +8.2’12Obama +0.8’16Clinton +0.7’20Biden +4.6’24Harris +0.3

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Iowa — CD 3

Lean D

Zach Nunn (R)

Zach Nunn(R)Sarah Trone Garriott(D)

Pres’08Obama +7.5’12Obama +5.9’16Trump +3.0’20Trump +0.3’24Trump +4.4

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

New Jersey — CD 7

Lean D

Tom Kean Jr. (R)

Tom Kean Jr.(R)Rebecca Bennett(D)

Pres’08McCain +8.1’12Romney +11.1’16Trump +5.7’20Biden +3.9’24Trump +1.2

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Texas — CD 34

Lean D

Vicente Gonzalez (D)

Vicente Gonzalez(D)Eric Flores(R)

Pres’08Obama +11.0’12Obama +13.2’16Clinton +12.8’20Biden +3.1’24Trump +10.1

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Virginia — CD 1

Lean D

Rob Wittman (R)

Rob Wittman(R)Shannon Taylor(D)

Pres’08McCain +17.0’12Romney +20.0’16Trump +13.6’20Trump +6.2’24Trump +4.9

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Wisconsin — CD 1

Lean D

Bryan Steil (R)

Bryan Steil(R)Randy Bryce(D)

Pres’08Obama +10.9’12Obama +5.3’16Trump +2.7’20Trump +2.0’24Trump +4.5

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Iowa — CD 2

Lean D

Open seat (Ashley Hinson not running)

Lindsay James(D)Clint Twedt-Ball(D)Shannon Lundgren(R)Charlie McClintock(R)

Pres’08Obama +17.6’12Obama +12.9’16Trump +4.6’20Trump +4.4’24Trump +10.0

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-25

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U.S. House

Maine — CD 2

Lean D

Open seat (Jared Golden not running)

Paul LePage(R)Joe Baldacci(D)Matthew Dunlap(D)

Pres’08Obama +10.9’12Obama +9.4’16Trump +9.0’20Trump +6.1’24Trump +9.1

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-03

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U.S. House

Michigan — CD 10

Lean D

Open seat (John James not running)

Mike Bouchard(R)Christina Hines(D)Alex Hawkins(D)

Pres’08Obama +10.3’12Obama +6.6’16Trump +5.4’20Trump +1.0’24Trump +6.5

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-03

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U.S. House

Ohio — CD 9

Lean D

Marcy Kaptur (D)

Marcy Kaptur(D)Derek Merrin(R)

Pres’08Obama +15.4’12Obama +13.6’16Trump +4.8’20Trump +6.7’24Trump +10.6

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

California — CD 40

Lean R

Young Kim (R)

Young Kim(R)Ken Calvert(R)Lisa Ramirez(D)

Pres’08McCain +2.0’12Romney +5.3’16Trump +13.7’20Trump +7.6’24Trump +12.2

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Colorado — CD 3

Lean R

Jeff Hurd (R)

Jeff Hurd(R)Kyle Doster(D)

Pres’08McCain +3.1’12Romney +7.3’16Trump +14.1’20Trump +8.3’24Trump +9.7

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Colorado — CD 5

Lean R

Jeff Crank (R)

Jeff Crank(R)Jessica Killin(D)

Pres’08McCain +18.4’12Romney +20.5’16Trump +21.8’20Trump +10.1’24Trump +9.1

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Michigan — CD 4

Lean R

Bill Huizenga (R)

Bill Huizenga(R)Sean McCann(D)

Pres’08Obama +2.2’12Romney +6.0’16Trump +9.5’20Trump +3.9’24Trump +5.5

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Missouri — CD 2

Lean R

Ann Wagner (R)

Ann Wagner(R)Fred Wellman(D)

Pres’08McCain +8.3’12Romney +19.4’16Trump +16.5’20Trump +7.8’24Trump +7.9

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

North Carolina — CD 11

Lean R

Chuck Edwards (R)

Chuck Edwards(R)Jamie Ager(D)

Pres’08McCain +6.5’12Romney +10.9’16Trump +16.0’20Trump +9.7’24Trump +9.5

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Florida — CD 27

Lean R

Maria Elvira Salazar (R)

Maria Elvira Salazar(R)Richard Lamondin(D)

Pres’08McCain +2.7’12Obama +5.0’16Clinton +17.3’20Trump +0.3’24Trump +14.9

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Ohio — CD 7

Lean R

Max Miller (R)

Max Miller(R)TBD(D)

Pres’08Obama +24.2’12Obama +23.2’16Trump +11.9’20Trump +9.6’24Trump +11.0

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Virginia — CD 5

Lean R

John McGuire (R)

John McGuire(R)Tom Perriello(D)

Pres’08McCain +5.2’12Romney +9.2’16Trump +11.3’20Trump +8.3’24Trump +12.2

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

California — CD 48

Likely D

Darrell Issa (R)

Darrell Issa(R)TBD(D)

Pres’08Obama +9.2’12Obama +6.8’16Trump +0.1’20Biden +7.3’24Harris +3.4

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Nebraska — CD 2

Likely D

Open seat (Don Bacon not running)

John Cavanaugh(D)Brett Lindstrom(R)Brinker Harding(R)

Pres’08Obama +1.9’12Romney +6.4’16Trump +1.9’20Biden +6.3’24Harris +4.6

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Arizona — CD 1

Likely D

Open seat (David Schweikert not running)

Amish Shah(D)Jonathan Treble(D)Jay Feely(R)Gina Swoboda(R)

Pres’08McCain +12.5’12Romney +17.3’16Trump +4.3’20Biden +1.5’24Trump +3.1

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Arizona — CD 6

Likely D

Juan Ciscomani (R)

Juan Ciscomani(R)Kirsten Engel(D)

Pres’08McCain +10.0’12Romney +11.0’16Trump +5.3’20Biden +0.1’24Trump +0.8

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-03

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U.S. House

California — CD 22

Likely D

Vince Fong (R)

Vince Fong(R)Rudy Salas(D)

Pres’08McCain +8.5’12Romney +8.4’16Clinton +19.8’20Biden +17.0’24Trump +1.8

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Colorado — CD 8

Likely D

Gabe Evans (R)

Gabe Evans(R)Manny Rutinel(D)

Pres’08Obama +9.9’12Obama +7.8’16Trump +1.8’20Biden +4.6’24Trump +1.8

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Michigan — CD 7

Likely D

Tom Barrett (R)

Tom Barrett(R)Curtis Hertel(D)

Pres’08Obama +10.3’12Obama +2.6’16Trump +3.8’20Biden +0.5’24Trump +1.3

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

New Mexico — CD 2

Likely D

Yvette Herrell (R)

Yvette Herrell(R)Gabe Vasquez(D)

Pres’08Obama +14.1’12Obama +9.9’16Clinton +6.1’20Biden +5.9’24Trump +1.9

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Pennsylvania — CD 7

Likely D

Ryan Mackenzie (R)

Ryan Mackenzie(R)Lamont McClure(D)

Pres’08Obama +12.7’12Obama +5.0’16Trump +2.9’20Biden +0.6’24Trump +3.2

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Virginia — CD 2

Likely D

Jen Kiggans (R)

Jen Kiggans(R)Elaine Luria(D)

Pres’08McCain +2.3’12Romney +3.5’16Trump +5.5’20Biden +1.9’24Trump +0.3

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Iowa — CD 1

Likely D

Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)

Mariannette Miller-Meeks(R)Christina Bohannan(D)

Pres’08Obama +15.7’12Obama +13.3’16Trump +3.0’20Trump +2.9’24Trump +8.5

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Pennsylvania — CD 8

Likely D

Rob Bresnahan (R)

Rob Bresnahan(R)Paige Cognetti(D)

Pres’08Obama +14.8’12Obama +12.7’16Trump +8.1’20Trump +2.9’24Trump +8.5

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Pennsylvania — CD 10

Likely D

Scott Perry (R)

Scott Perry(R)Janelle Stelson(D)

Pres’08McCain +2.3’12Romney +7.3’16Trump +9.9’20Trump +4.1’24Trump +5.2

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Wisconsin — CD 3

Likely D

Derrick Van Orden (R)

Derrick Van Orden(R)TBD(D)

Pres’08Obama +20.1’12Obama +11.2’16Trump +4.5’20Trump +4.7’24Trump +7.4

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Alaska

Likely R

Nick Begich III (R)

Nick Begich III(R)Matt Schultz(D)

Pres’08McCain +21.5’12Romney +14.0’16Trump +14.7’20Trump +10.1’24Trump +13.1

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Florida — CD 4

Likely R

Aaron Bean (R)

Aaron Bean(R)Brittney Robinson(D)

Pres’08McCain +6.7’12Romney +8.6’16Trump +10.5’20Trump +6.7’24Trump +11.8

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Florida — CD 7

Likely R

Cory Mills (R)

Cory Mills(R)Noah Widmann(D)

Pres’08McCain +0.8’12Romney +5.9’16Trump +7.7’20Trump +5.5’24Trump +12.4

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Florida — CD 13

Likely R

Anna Paulina Luna (R)

Anna Paulina Luna(R)Leela Gray(D)

Pres’08Obama +2.9’12Romney +0.3’16Trump +7.8’20Trump +6.8’24Trump +11.8

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Florida — CD 15

Likely R

Laurel Lee (R)

Laurel Lee(R)Darren McAuley(D)

Pres’08McCain +0.1’12Romney +1.8’16Trump +3.8’20Trump +3.2’24Trump +11.1

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Georgia — CD 12

Likely R

Rick Allen (R)

Rick Allen(R)TBD(D)

Pres’08McCain +8.9’12Romney +9.3’16Trump +13.2’20Trump +10.2’24Trump +14.2

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Minnesota — CD 1

Likely R

Brad Finstad (R)

Brad Finstad(R)Jake Johnson(D)

Pres’08Obama +4.5’12Obama +1.9’16Trump +13.8’20Trump +9.2’24Trump +12.0

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Minnesota — CD 8

Likely R

Pete Stauber (R)

Pete Stauber(R)Cyle Cramer(D)

Pres’08Obama +9.8’12Obama +7.0’16Trump +12.8’20Trump +11.3’24Trump +14.3

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Montana — CD 1

Likely R

Open seat (Ryan Zinke not running)

TBD(R)Ryan Busse(D)

Pres’08Obama +2.5’12Romney +7.5’16Trump +11.8’20Trump +6.9’24Trump +11.6

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-03

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U.S. House

Nebraska — CD 1

Likely R

Mike Flood (R)

Mike Flood(R)Eric Moyer(D)

Pres’08McCain +9.1’12Romney +16.1’16Trump +18.3’20Trump +11.1’24Trump +13.0

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Nevada — CD 2

Likely R

Open seat (Mark Amodei not running)

Greg Kidd(D)Teresa Benitez-Thompson(D)Rick Shepherd(R)Heath Fulkerson(R)

Pres’08Obama +0.3’12Romney +9.3’16Trump +13.3’20Trump +11.0’24Trump +13.9

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

New Jersey — CD 2

Likely R

Jeff Van Drew (R)

Jeff Van Drew(R)Bayly Winder(D)

Pres’08Obama +5.9’12Obama +6.9’16Trump +7.1’20Trump +4.9’24Trump +12.6

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

New York — CD 1

Likely R

Nick LaLota (R)

Nick LaLota(R)Chris Gallant(D)

Pres’08Obama +2.1’12Romney +2.9’16Trump +9.8’20Trump +1.8’24Trump +10.0

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

New York — CD 2

Likely R

Andrew Garbarino (R)

Andrew Garbarino(R)Patrick Halpin(D)

Pres’08Obama +7.0’12Obama +8.1’16Trump +7.6’20Trump +2.4’24Trump +13.9

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

North Carolina — CD 7

Likely R

David Rouzer (R)

David Rouzer(R)Kimberly Hardy(D)

Pres’08Obama +1.1’12Romney +0.3’16Trump +12.6’20Trump +5.6’24Trump +13.8

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

South Carolina — CD 1

Likely R

Open seat (Nancy Mace not running)

Nancy Lacore(D)K.J. Atwood(D)Mark Sanford(R)Logan Cunningham(R)

Pres’08McCain +12.9’12Romney +18.6’16Trump +14.8’20Trump +8.6’24Trump +13.0

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

South Carolina — CD 2

Likely R

Joe Wilson (R)

Joe Wilson(R)David Robinson II(D)

Pres’08McCain +18.9’12Romney +18.9’16Trump +17.1’20Trump +10.6’24Trump +13.9

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Washington — CD 5

Likely R

Michael Baumgartner (R)

Michael Baumgartner(R)Carmela Conroy(D)

Pres’08McCain +6.0’12Romney +11.2’16Trump +14.0’20Trump +10.0’24Trump +10.7

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

California — CD 6

Safe D

Open seat (Ami Bera not running)

TBD(D)TBD(D)

Pres’08Obama +16.4’12Obama +15.3’16Clinton +10.2’20Biden +12.6’24Harris +8.4

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

California — CD 26

Safe D

Open seat (Julia Brownley not running)

Jacqui Irwin(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +29.4’12Obama +28.2’16Clinton +20.3’20Biden +22.4’24Harris +15.3

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

California — CD 35

Safe D

Norma Torres (D)

Norma Torres(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +29.1’12Obama +29.9’16Clinton +28.0’20Biden +23.5’24Harris +7.8

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

California — CD 41

Safe D

Open seat (Ken Calvert not running)

Will Rollins(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +26.3’12Obama +26.0’16Clinton +28.7’20Biden +25.8’24Harris +14.2

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Colorado — CD 7

Safe D

Brittany Pettersen (D)

Brittany Pettersen(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +6.3’12Obama +2.6’16Clinton +3.0’20Biden +14.2’24Harris +15.0

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Connecticut — CD 3

Safe D

Rosa DeLauro (D)

Rosa DeLauro(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +25.0’12Obama +26.1’16Clinton +13.9’20Biden +19.7’24Harris +14.1

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Delaware

Safe D

Sarah McBride (D)

Sarah McBride(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +25.0’12Obama +18.6’16Clinton +11.4’20Biden +19.0’24Harris +14.7

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Illinois — CD 11

Safe D

Bill Foster (D)

Bill Foster(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +12.6’12Obama +1.8’16Clinton +10.6’20Biden +15.3’24Harris +11.4

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Illinois — CD 13

Safe D

Nikki Budzinski (D)

Nikki Budzinski(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +22.8’12Obama +14.6’16Clinton +8.3’20Biden +11.2’24Harris +10.7

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Louisiana — CD 6

Safe D

Cleo Fields (D)

Cleo Fields(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +17.7’12Obama +20.8’16Clinton +19.2’20Biden +19.7’24Harris +14.9

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Massachusetts — CD 1

Safe D

Richard Neal (D)

Richard Neal(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +28.1’12Obama +27.8’16Clinton +17.5’20Biden +21.7’24Harris +13.6

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Massachusetts — CD 9

Safe D

Bill Keating (D)

Bill Keating(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +14.6’12Obama +9.8’16Clinton +9.9’20Biden +18.2’24Harris +10.7

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

New Mexico — CD 1

Safe D

Melanie Stansbury (D)

Melanie Stansbury(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +13.5’12Obama +15.0’16Clinton +7.9’20Biden +14.4’24Harris +12.9

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

New York — CD 20

Safe D

Paul Tonko (D)

Paul Tonko(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +17.3’12Obama +19.5’16Clinton +11.8’20Biden +19.1’24Harris +14.2

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Oregon — CD 4

Safe D

Val Hoyle (D)

Val Hoyle(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +17.7’12Obama +14.0’16Clinton +8.0’20Biden +12.7’24Harris +12.0

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Oregon — CD 6

Safe D

Andrea Salinas (D)

Andrea Salinas(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +8.8’12Obama +3.0’16Clinton +6.7’20Biden +13.2’24Harris +11.3

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Pennsylvania — CD 6

Safe D

Chrissy Houlahan (D)

Chrissy Houlahan(D)Marty Young(R)

Pres’08Obama +12.1’12Obama +3.0’16Clinton +8.9’20Biden +14.7’24Harris +11.4

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Alabama — CD 2

Safe D

Shomari Figures (D)

Shomari Figures(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +10.8’12Obama +13.0’16Clinton +10.4’20Biden +12.4’24Harris +8.2

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Arizona — CD 4

Safe D

Greg Stanton (D)

Greg Stanton(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08McCain +7.0’12Romney +7.4’16Clinton +2.5’20Biden +10.3’24Harris +6.6

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

California — CD 3

Safe D

Open seat (Kevin Kiley not running)

Ami Bera(D)Christine Bish(R)

Pres’08McCain +0.6’12Romney +6.3’16Clinton +9.2’20Biden +14.0’24Harris +10.2

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

California — CD 9

Safe D

Josh Harder (D)

Josh Harder(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +23.2’12Obama +23.6’16Clinton +27.1’20Biden +26.2’24Harris +11.4

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

California — CD 33

Safe D

Pete Aguilar (D)

Pete Aguilar(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +5.5’12Obama +6.0’16Clinton +30.3’20Biden +25.9’24Harris +9.8

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

California — CD 39

Safe D

Mark Takano (D)

Mark Takano(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +2.3’12Obama +1.6’16Clinton +28.5’20Biden +26.0’24Harris +9.6

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

California — CD 49

Safe D

Mike Levin (D)

Mike Levin(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +5.0’12Obama +1.9’16Clinton +9.7’20Biden +15.2’24Harris +12.1

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Connecticut — CD 2

Safe D

Joe Courtney (D)

Joe Courtney(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +18.7’12Obama +13.2’16Clinton +3.4’20Biden +11.4’24Harris +7.7

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Connecticut — CD 5

Safe D

Jahana Hayes (D)

Jahana Hayes(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +14.0’12Obama +8.6’16Clinton +4.2’20Biden +10.8’24Harris +5.6

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Florida — CD 14

Safe D

Kathy Castor (D)

Kathy Castor(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +23.3’12Obama +22.7’16Clinton +21.6’20Biden +19.1’24Harris +7.6

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Florida — CD 22

Safe D

Lois Frankel (D)

Lois Frankel(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +27.8’12Obama +22.4’16Clinton +20.1’20Biden +17.6’24Harris +5.5

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Florida — CD 25

Safe D

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)

Debbie Wasserman Schultz(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +25.7’12Obama +26.7’16Clinton +28.4’20Biden +19.9’24Harris +5.3

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Georgia — CD 2

Safe D

Sanford Bishop (D)

Sanford Bishop(D)Chuck Hand(R)

Pres’08Obama +13.3’12Obama +14.8’16Clinton +9.1’20Biden +10.3’24Harris +7.7

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

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U.S. House

Illinois — CD 6

Safe D

Sean Casten (D)

Sean Casten(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +8.7’12Obama +1.3’16Clinton +8.3’20Biden +10.9’24Harris +5.5

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Illinois — CD 8

Safe D

Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)

Raja Krishnamoorthi(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +18.5’12Obama +9.6’16Clinton +15.7’20Biden +15.4’24Harris +7.0

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Illinois — CD 14

Safe D

Lauren Underwood (D)

Lauren Underwood(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +17.7’12Obama +8.6’16Clinton +8.6’20Biden +11.5’24Harris +5.2

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Maryland — CD 6

Safe D

April Delaney (D)

April Delaney(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +3.3’12Obama +1.3’16Clinton +1.2’20Biden +9.8’24Harris +5.7

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Michigan — CD 3

Safe D

Hillary Scholten (D)

Hillary Scholten(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +6.4’12Romney +2.5’16Clinton +0.2’20Biden +8.5’24Harris +7.9

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Minnesota — CD 2

Safe D

Open seat (Angie Craig not running)

Matt Little(D)Erin Maye Quade(D)Tyler Kistner(R)Joe Teirab(R)

Pres’08Obama +2.7’12Romney +0.1’16Trump +1.1’20Biden +7.2’24Harris +5.8

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-25

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U.S. House

New Jersey — CD 3

Safe D

Herb Conaway (D)

Herb Conaway(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +12.8’12Obama +12.5’16Clinton +9.5’20Biden +14.0’24Harris +8.4

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

New Jersey — CD 6

Safe D

Frank Pallone (D)

Frank Pallone(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +21.0’12Obama +27.5’16Clinton +19.0’20Biden +19.3’24Harris +6.4

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

New Jersey — CD 11

Safe D

Open seat (Mikie Sherrill not running)

TBD(D)TBD(D)

Pres’08Obama +4.2’12Obama +5.3’16Clinton +10.7’20Biden +16.9’24Harris +8.7

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-03

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U.S. House

New York — CD 6

Safe D

Grace Meng (D)

Grace Meng(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +33.4’12Obama +43.3’16Clinton +40.0’20Biden +29.4’24Harris +6.4

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

New York — CD 22

Safe D

John Mannion (D)

John Mannion(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +14.7’12Obama +16.0’16Clinton +5.7’20Biden +11.4’24Harris +7.7

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-24

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U.S. House

Oregon — CD 5

Safe D

Janelle Bynum (D)

Janelle Bynum(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +8.1’12Obama +2.0’16Clinton +2.9’20Biden +8.9’24Harris +8.6

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Pennsylvania — CD 17

Safe D

Chris Deluzio (D)

Chris Deluzio(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +1.5’12Romney +0.8’16Clinton +1.0’20Biden +5.8’24Harris +5.5

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Rhode Island — CD 2

Safe D

Seth Magaziner (D)

Seth Magaziner(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +21.7’12Obama +22.4’16Clinton +7.3’20Biden +13.7’24Harris +6.8

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Virginia — CD 10

Safe D

Suhas Subramanyam (D)

Suhas Subramanyam(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +2.6’12Romney +0.5’16Clinton +7.6’20Biden +18.1’24Harris +8.3

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Washington — CD 8

Safe D

Kim Schrier (D)

Kim Schrier(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +5.0’12Obama +1.0’16Clinton +3.3’20Biden +6.7’24Harris +5.7

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

California — CD 21

Safe D

Jim Costa (D)

Jim Costa(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08McCain +2.6’12Romney +2.8’16Clinton +21.9’20Biden +21.1’24Harris +6.0

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

View race details →

U.S. House

California — CD 25

Safe D

Raul Ruiz (D)

Raul Ruiz(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +4.9’12Obama +4.9’16Clinton +17.0’20Biden +16.4’24Harris +5.8

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

View race details →

U.S. House

California — CD 27

Safe D

George Whitesides (D)

George Whitesides(D)Jason Gibbs(R)

Pres’08Obama +40.4’12Obama +41.9’16Clinton +18.8’20Biden +19.6’24Harris +9.8

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

View race details →

U.S. House

California — CD 45

Safe D

Derek Tran (D)

Derek Tran(D)Mark Leonard(R)

Pres’08Obama +2.2’12Romney +1.0’16Clinton +21.3’20Biden +10.1’24Harris +4.0

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

California — CD 47

Safe D

Dave Min (D)

Dave Min(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08McCain +2.6’12Romney +6.2’16Clinton +10.8’20Biden +16.1’24Harris +10.1

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

View race details →

U.S. House

Florida — CD 9

Safe D

Darren Soto (D)

Darren Soto(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +19.1’12Obama +24.5’16Clinton +26.4’20Biden +17.4’24Harris +3.5

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

View race details →

U.S. House

Florida — CD 23

Safe D

Jared Moskowitz (D)

Jared Moskowitz(D)George Moraitis(R)

Pres’08Obama +16.5’12Obama +11.7’16Clinton +14.2’20Biden +13.2’24Harris +1.9

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

View race details →

U.S. House

Illinois — CD 17

Safe D

Eric Sorensen (D)

Eric Sorensen(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +21.6’12Obama +17.6’16Clinton +6.6’20Biden +7.8’24Harris +4.8

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Indiana — CD 1

Safe D

Frank Mrvan (D)

Frank Mrvan(D)Jennifer-Ruth Green(R)

Pres’08Obama +27.0’12Obama +23.7’16Clinton +11.8’20Biden +8.4’24Harris +0.3

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Kansas — CD 3

Safe D

Sharice Davids (D)

Sharice Davids(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08McCain +8.6’12Romney +17.0’16Trump +5.3’20Biden +4.5’24Harris +4.1

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Nevada — CD 1

Safe D

Dina Titus (D)

Dina Titus(D)Carrie Buck(R)

Pres’08Obama +18.2’12Obama +14.5’16Clinton +10.1’20Biden +8.5’24Harris +2.3

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Nevada — CD 4

Safe D

Steven Horsford (D)

Steven Horsford(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +20.8’12Obama +17.8’16Clinton +10.5’20Biden +8.3’24Harris +2.3

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

New Hampshire — CD 1

Safe D

Open seat (Chris Pappas not running)

Maura Sullivan(D)Stefany Shaheen(D)Melissa Bailey(R)

Pres’08Obama +6.2’12Obama +1.4’16Trump +1.7’20Biden +5.9’24Harris +2.0

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

New Hampshire — CD 2

Safe D

Maggie Goodlander (D)

Maggie Goodlander(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +13.0’12Obama +9.9’16Clinton +2.4’20Biden +8.8’24Harris +3.6

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-03

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U.S. House

New Jersey — CD 5

Safe D

Josh Gottheimer (D)

Josh Gottheimer(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +5.0’12Obama +3.9’16Clinton +7.7’20Biden +12.4’24Harris +1.5

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

New Mexico — CD 3

Safe D

Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)

Teresa Leger Fernandez(D)Martin Zamora(R)

Pres’08Obama +14.1’12Obama +15.0’16Clinton +10.4’20Biden +10.8’24Harris +4.8

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

New York — CD 4

Safe D

Laura Gillen (D)

Laura Gillen(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +13.3’12Obama +15.4’16Clinton +12.1’20Biden +14.5’24Harris +1.3

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

View race details →

U.S. House

New York — CD 18

Safe D

Pat Ryan (D)

Pat Ryan(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +10.9’12Obama +11.5’16Clinton +1.4’20Biden +9.1’24Harris +3.3

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

View race details →

U.S. House

New York — CD 19

Safe D

Josh Riley (D)

Josh Riley(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +10.4’12Obama +9.2’16Trump +1.9’20Biden +4.5’24Harris +1.8

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Ohio — CD 13

Safe D

Emilia Sykes (D)

Emilia Sykes(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +15.4’12Obama +13.4’16Clinton +5.3’20Biden +5.8’24Harris +3.3

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Virginia — CD 7

Safe D

Eugene Vindman (D)

Eugene Vindman(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +5.7’12Obama +3.7’16Clinton +2.2’20Biden +6.8’24Harris +2.9

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

View race details →

U.S. House

California — CD 13

Safe D

John Duarte (R)

John Duarte(R)Adam Gray(D)

Pres’08Obama +4.7’12Obama +5.7’16Clinton +21.0’20Biden +17.7’24Harris +0.4

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

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U.S. House

Michigan — CD 8

Safe D

Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)

Kristen McDonald Rivet(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +23.0’12Obama +17.1’16Clinton +1.1’20Biden +2.0’24Trump +2.0

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-24

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U.S. House

Nevada — CD 3

Safe D

Susie Lee (D)

Susie Lee(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +14.7’12Obama +8.7’16Clinton +6.8’20Biden +6.6’24Trump +0.7

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-24

View race details →

U.S. House

New Jersey — CD 9

Safe D

Nellie Pou (D)

Nellie Pou(D)Billy Prempeh(R)

Pres’08Obama +22.7’12Obama +32.6’16Clinton +24.0’20Biden +18.9’24Trump +1.1

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

View race details →

U.S. House

New York — CD 3

Safe D

Tom Suozzi (D)

Tom Suozzi(D)TBD(R)

Pres’08Obama +9.5’12Obama +7.4’16Clinton +8.3’20Biden +11.3’24Trump +4.3

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

View race details →

U.S. House

Washington — CD 3

Safe D

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez(D)John Braun(R)

Pres’08Obama +3.8’12Romney +1.6’16Trump +7.6’20Trump +4.2’24Trump +3.3

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-02-23

View race details →

U.S. House

Texas — CD 28

Safe D

Henry Cuellar (D)

Henry Cuellar(D)Tano Tijerina(R)

Pres’08Obama +36.6’12Obama +40.8’16Clinton +36.3’20Biden +9.7’24Trump +10.4

MarketNo active market

Updated 2026-03-04

View race details →

Methodology

Rating system, probability model, Monte Carlo simulations (435 districts, σ=1.0), redistricting scenarios, and data sources.

Read methodology →

2026 House Forecast

Seat Distribution

10,000 Simulations

Redistricting Uncertainty

Scenario Builder

Competitive Races (132)

North Carolina — CD 1

Texas — CD 35

Arizona — CD 2

Ohio — CD 10

Ohio — CD 15

Ohio — CD 1

New York — CD 17

Pennsylvania — CD 1

Iowa — CD 3

New Jersey — CD 7

Texas — CD 34

Virginia — CD 1

Wisconsin — CD 1

Iowa — CD 2

Maine — CD 2

Michigan — CD 10

Ohio — CD 9

California — CD 40

Colorado — CD 3

Colorado — CD 5

Michigan — CD 4

Missouri — CD 2

North Carolina — CD 11

Florida — CD 27

Ohio — CD 7

Virginia — CD 5

California — CD 48

Nebraska — CD 2

Arizona — CD 1

Arizona — CD 6

California — CD 22

Colorado — CD 8

Michigan — CD 7

New Mexico — CD 2

Pennsylvania — CD 7

Virginia — CD 2

Iowa — CD 1

Pennsylvania — CD 8

Pennsylvania — CD 10

Wisconsin — CD 3

Alaska

Florida — CD 4

Florida — CD 7

Florida — CD 13

Florida — CD 15

Georgia — CD 12

Minnesota — CD 1

Minnesota — CD 8

Montana — CD 1

Nebraska — CD 1

Nevada — CD 2

New Jersey — CD 2

New York — CD 1

New York — CD 2

North Carolina — CD 7

South Carolina — CD 1

South Carolina — CD 2

Washington — CD 5

California — CD 6

California — CD 26

California — CD 35

California — CD 41

Colorado — CD 7

Connecticut — CD 3

Delaware

Illinois — CD 11

Illinois — CD 13

Louisiana — CD 6

Massachusetts — CD 1

Massachusetts — CD 9

New Mexico — CD 1

New York — CD 20

Oregon — CD 4

Oregon — CD 6