2026 House Forecast

Don Davis (D)

Eastern NC. SL 2025-95 made this significantly more Republican than the old lines (Trump+12), but Davis is a proven crossover candidate who won in 2022 and 2024 in challenging territory. The 2026 national environment and Cooper at the top of the ticket provide a strong tailwind. Buckhout lost in 2024 on more favorable lines. Tilt D.

Open seat (Greg Casar not running)

Austin to San Antonio corridor. PlanC2333 cracked this from D+34 to R+11 — the most dramatic gerrymander shift in the country. Casar moved to the newly created TX-37. But the crowded GOP primary produced a weak nominee, and Democrats have recruited a credible candidate who can compete on the I-35 corridor with its mix of Austin suburbs and San Antonio working-class communities. The 2026 national environment makes this an unlikely but real pickup opportunity. Tilt D.

Eli Crane (R)

Northern AZ (Flagstaff, Verde Valley, eastern AZ). Crane is a former Navy SEAL with a MAGA profile. The district is red overall but Flagstaff and tribal lands provide a Democratic base that keeps it from being safe. Trump carried the district by about 15 pts, but Crane's controversial record — including being censured for using a racist term on the House floor — creates vulnerability. Flagstaff (NAU), Navajo Nation, and Verde Valley retirees form a Democratic coalition that could reach 45%+ in a wave year. The vast rural areas east of the Rim are deep red, but Crane's MAGA brand underperforms generic Republican support among moderate Prescott-area retirees.

Mike Turner (R)

Dayton area. Turner chairs the House Intelligence Committee and is well-funded. The bipartisan commission lines made this Trump+8, and Ohio has trended hard right statewide. Turner has broken with his party on Ukraine and surveillance reform, which helps with suburban moderates near Wright-Patterson AFB, but the Dayton metro has not moved toward Democrats the way other Midwestern cities have. Tilt R.

Mike Carey (R)

Columbus western suburbs. Carey won a 2021 special election with Trump's endorsement. The new commission-drawn lines add more of suburban Columbus, making this slightly more competitive than the old gerrymander. Trump carried the district by about 12 pts, but the Dublin/Hilliard/Upper Arlington suburbs of Columbus are among the fastest-growing and most college-educated areas in Ohio, and they have been trending Democratic. Carey is a coal lobbyist by background, which plays well in southeastern Ohio but less so in the suburban portions. The commission lines bring Franklin County voters into the district, creating a genuine swing dynamic.

Greg Landsman (D)

Landsman flipped this Cincinnati seat in 2022 and now faces a tougher map after the commission deal moves it to R+5. Still very winnable territory for an incumbent Democrat in a strong national environment.

Mike Lawler (R)

Lower Hudson Valley (Rockland, Westchester). Lawler won re-election in 2024 with 52% but Harris carried the district. He considered running for governor but is staying — faces 8+ Dem challengers.

Brian Fitzpatrick (R)

Bucks County, suburban Philadelphia. Fitzpatrick is the most bipartisan House Republican and has won in Biden +5 territory. Dems see this as flippable in a wave but he is extremely hard to beat.

Zach Nunn (R)

Des Moines suburbs. Nunn won by just 0.7 pts in 2022 and expanded to 4 pts in 2024, but Trump carried the district by only 1.8 pts — making this a clear Dem pickup opportunity in a midterm wave. The suburban Polk County core has trended Democratic while rural areas shifted hard right, creating a volatile swing seat that historically punishes the president's party.

Tom Kean Jr. (R)

Central NJ suburbs. Kean carries his father's legacy name (former governor) but Harris carried this district and Dems have targeted it every cycle since 2022. The wealthy, college-educated suburban voters in Hunterdon and Somerset counties are the quintessential anti-Trump swing demographic. Sue Altman, a progressive organizer, nearly flipped it in 2024 and Dems will field another strong challenger.

Vicente Gonzalez (D)

Rio Grande Valley. Gonzalez faces Eric Flores (R, Trump-endorsed), who won the March 4 GOP primary over Mayra Flores. PlanC2333 shifted this to roughly even (Cook PVI EVEN), but Gonzalez has won here three times and has deep RGV roots that let him outperform the partisan baseline. Nearly three-quarters of eligible voters are Hispanic. The 2026 national environment provides additional tailwind. Lean D.

Rob Wittman (R)

Eastern Virginia (Fredericksburg to Hampton Roads exurbs). Wittman faces a large Dem challenger field — Shannon Taylor ($362K) and Lisa Khanna ($266K) lead. New redistricting lines make this more competitive.

Bryan Steil (R)

Racine/Kenosha to Janesville (the old Paul Ryan seat). New court-ordered maps made this bluer — Trump carried it with just 51%. Randy Bryce (2018 nominee) is running again.

Open seat (Ashley Hinson not running)

Cedar Rapids/Waterloo. Hinson left to run for Senate. Open GOP seat in a district that Dems held until 2020. Iowa has trended red but the I-380 corridor between Cedar Rapids and Waterloo keeps this within reach — Trump carried the district by only about 4 pts, and Dems held this seat from 2007 to 2020 under Dave Loebsack. Lindsay James is the 2024 Dem nominee who lost to Hinson by 5 pts and already has campaign infrastructure in place. Without Hinson's incumbency advantage, this is a top-tier pickup opportunity in a midterm environment.

Open seat (Jared Golden not running)

Rural Maine (Bangor north). Golden retired in November 2025 after holding this Trump+11 district since 2018. Without Golden's extraordinary crossover appeal, Cook moved this to Likely R. Former Gov. Paul LePage (R) is the frontrunner, while Joe Baldacci and Matthew Dunlap lead the Democratic field. Maine's ranked-choice voting keeps this from being safe R, but Democrats lost their strongest asset when Golden stepped down.

Open seat (John James not running)

Macomb/Oakland suburban Detroit. James left to run for governor. Open GOP seat in a district with a blue-collar base that swings with the national mood — becomes a top Dem target without James on the ballot. Trump carried the district by about 6 pts, but Macomb County's union autoworkers frequently split tickets and the Oakland County portion has trended blue since 2016. Without James's personal brand and fundraising, this becomes a genuine toss-up in a favorable Democratic year.

Marcy Kaptur (D)

Kaptur is one of the longest-serving members of the House and has survived wave elections before. Ohio's bipartisan commission deal redraws her Toledo-area seat to R+11, but her deep incumbency advantage and local roots keep her in the game.

Young Kim (R)

Orange County/San Bernardino. R+12 on new Prop 50 lines — significantly more Republican than old boundaries. Kim faces a chaotic race with Ken Calvert also filing here after his old district was dissolved. Multiple Dem challengers including Lisa Ramirez.

Jeff Hurd (R)

Western Slope (Grand Junction, Durango, Pueblo). Hurd replaced Boebert who left for CO-04. He ran as a more conventional Republican and won easily, but the district includes Democratic-leaning resort towns like Aspen, Telluride, and Durango. Trump carried the district by roughly 10 pts in 2024, but the Western Slope's libertarian streak and outdoor-recreation economy create crossover appeal for the right Democrat. Pueblo's working-class Hispanic voters add a potential Democratic base if turnout is strong.

Jeff Crank (R)

Colorado Springs. Traditionally safe GOP territory anchored by the military, but Colorado's suburban shift has made even the Springs competitive at the margins. Crank is a first-termer still building name recognition. Trump carried the district by about 9 pts, down from the 20+ pt margins this seat produced a decade ago. Fort Carson and the Air Force Academy provide a military base that has traditionally voted Republican, but the influx of young professionals and remote workers from Denver has shifted the electorate. A strong Dem recruit could make this surprisingly competitive in a wave.

Bill Huizenga (R)

West Michigan lakeshore (Muskegon to Holland). Huizenga has held this since 2011. The independent redistricting commission made this slightly more competitive, adding Muskegon's working-class Democratic voters. Trump carried the district by about 12 pts, but the Dutch Reformed community in Holland is not uniformly MAGA, and Muskegon provides a blue anchor. Huizenga is a Financial Services Committee member with strong fundraising, but a wave election combined with the new lines could create a surprise.

Ann Wagner (R)

St. Louis western suburbs (Chesterfield, Ballwin). Wagner has represented this seat since 2013 and is a former RNC co-chair with strong fundraising. Trump carried the district by roughly 8 pts, but the wealthy, college-educated suburban corridor has seen Republican margins erode since 2016. Missouri has not elected a statewide Democrat since 2018, limiting outside investment here, but the district itself is competitive enough to flip in a strong wave.

Chuck Edwards (R)

Western NC mountains (Asheville). Edwards beat Madison Cawthorn in the 2022 primary. Asheville is deep blue but the surrounding rural areas are solidly red — the new SL 2025-95 lines dilute the blue core by cracking Asheville between districts. Trump carried the new district by about 14 pts, but Asheville's Buncombe County remains one of the bluest in the South, and Hurricane Helene response has become a potent local issue. Edwards has a moderate temperament compared to his predecessor Cawthorn, but the MAGA base expects fealty and a primary challenge from the right is always possible. Dems would need both a strong candidate and a wave to compete here.

Maria Elvira Salazar (R)

Miami-Dade (Coral Gables, Kendall). Salazar has built a strong brand among Cuban and Venezuelan Americans. Miami's Hispanic shift toward the GOP makes this safer than it looks on paper, but Dems haven't given up on Dade.

Max Miller (R)

Northeast Ohio (Canton, Wooster). Miller is a Trump-endorsed first-termer. The bipartisan commission redrew this to include more of the Akron suburbs, making it slightly less safe than the old gerrymander.

John McGuire (R)

Southside Virginia (Charlottesville to Danville). McGuire beat Bob Good in a brutal 2024 primary. The new independent commission lines made this slightly more competitive by adding Charlottesville, but the rural areas dominate.

Darrell Issa (R)

Inland Empire/north San Diego County. Prop 50 transformed this from safe R to D+3 — one of the biggest shifts in the remap. Issa is a well-funded longtime incumbent but faces hostile new terrain.

Open seat (Don Bacon not running)

Omaha-area swing district. Bacon retired June 2025. Harris carried this district in 2024. Open seat with strong candidates on both sides — top Dem pickup opportunity. State Sen. John Cavanaugh leads the D field.

Open seat (David Schweikert not running)

Scottsdale/Phoenix suburbs. Schweikert left to run for governor. Open seat in educated suburbs — Cook rates Toss-Up. Amish Shah (2024 Dem nominee) and Jonathan Treble ($1.7M raised) lead the Dem field.

Juan Ciscomani (R)

Tucson-area seat. Ciscomani is a top Dem target — young, Latino Republican in a Biden-won district. He has survived two close races already but Dems will invest heavily again. Harris carried the district by about 0.8 pts, and the Tucson metro's educated electorate and university anchor favor Democrats. Ciscomani's moderate brand insulates him somewhat, but he faces a national midterm environment that will drive Democratic turnout in this exact kind of suburban-Sun Belt seat.

Vince Fong (R)

Bakersfield/Kern County. Fong won the special election for Kevin McCarthy's old seat. Prop 50 made this nearly even (R+2) — a dramatic shift from McCarthy's old safe seat. Fong has incumbency advantage but the district is now genuinely competitive.

Gabe Evans (R)

Denver north suburbs (Thornton, Brighton). Evans flipped this in 2024. State Rep. Manny Rutinel outraised Evans in Q1 ($1.2M) and leads the Dem field after Caraveo dropped out. Trump carried this district by only 1.8 pts in 2024, and the Adams County/Thornton base is heavily Latino and union-heavy — a natural Democratic constituency that underperformed in a presidential year. Colorado's eighth district was created in 2020 redistricting specifically because of Front Range growth, and its demographics increasingly favor Democrats.

Tom Barrett (R)

Lansing and mid-Michigan. Barrett flipped this from Slotkin (who ran for Senate) and has one term of incumbency advantage. Harris carried the district despite Barrett's win, and the Michigan State/Lansing anchor gives Dems a built-in suburban-academic base. Barrett is a state senator with limited fundraising infrastructure facing a national environment that historically punishes the president's party.

Yvette Herrell (R)

Southern NM including Las Cruces. Herrell faces a third Vasquez rematch — he has raised $583K+. This seat has flipped three times in four cycles. Trump carried the district by about 7 pts in 2024, but Herrell won by only 4 — indicating significant ticket-splitting among the large Hispanic electorate centered on Las Cruces and the border communities. Vasquez knows the terrain intimately from his 2022 win and 2024 loss, and the midterm turnout advantage could bring this back to the Democratic column in a favorable national environment.

Ryan Mackenzie (R)

Lehigh Valley (Allentown, Bethlehem). Mackenzie flipped this from Susan Wild in 2024 with just over 50%. Lamont McClure (Northampton County exec) is a strong Dem recruit. Cook rates Toss-Up.

Jen Kiggans (R)

Virginia Beach/Norfolk suburbs. Kiggans faces a rematch with Elaine Luria, who raised $1.1M in Q4 and has endorsements from Kaine, Warner, and Gov.-elect Spanberger. Marquee race of 2026.

Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)

Southeast Iowa (Davenport, Iowa City). Miller-Meeks won her first race by 6 votes and has built a stronger margin since. College town voters in Iowa City keep this competitive but she has proven durable — winning by 6 votes in 2020, then 7 pts in 2022 and 8 pts in 2024. Trump carried the district by about 5 pts. The University of Iowa in Iowa City and the Quad Cities manufacturing base provide a Democratic floor, but Iowa's overall rightward shift has lifted all Republican candidates. Miller-Meeks is an ophthalmologist with moderate positioning on healthcare, which blunts Dem attacks in a district where the ACA is salient.

Rob Bresnahan (R)

Northeast PA (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre). Bresnahan flipped this from Matt Cartwright in 2024 with 51.5%. Trump carried the district by about 11 pts, but Cartwright held it for over a decade through union ties and constituent service. Lackawanna County (Scranton) is still ancestrally Democratic, and Biden's hometown connection drove strong Dem performance here. A strong Dem recruit with Scranton roots could reclaim this in a midterm wave.

Scott Perry (R)

Harrisburg/York. Perry is one of the most conservative members of the Freedom Caucus and was implicated in the Jan 6 investigation. His hardline profile is a liability in the suburban-trending Harrisburg/York area. Trump carried the district by about 6 pts, but Perry's margins have been shrinking — Dems came within single digits in three consecutive races. Cumberland and Dauphin counties are the key swing terrain, and a strong moderate Dem recruit makes this a prime pickup opportunity.

Derrick Van Orden (R)

Western Wisconsin (La Crosse, Eau Claire). Van Orden won Ron Kind's old seat in 2022. The new court-ordered maps made this slightly bluer. College towns along the Mississippi (UW-La Crosse, UW-Eau Claire) anchor the Democratic base, and the new court-ordered maps moved this from R+7 to roughly R+3. Van Orden is a polarizing figure known for confrontational behavior, and Dems held this seat for 26 years under Ron Kind. A strong Democratic recruit could flip this in a favorable midterm environment.

Nick Begich III (R)

At-large seat. Begich defeated Mary Peltola in 2024 under ranked-choice voting. Alaska's RCV system and independent-minded electorate keep this slightly competitive, but the state leans Republican overall.

Aaron Bean (R)

Jacksonville suburbs/Nassau County. Bean is a first-term Republican in a solidly red district. Florida's rightward trend makes this safe but the Jacksonville suburbs are growing and diversifying — Duval County has trended blue in recent cycles. Trump carried the district by about 15 pts, but Bean is a low-profile first-termer who won his primary in a crowded field. The military presence at NAS Jacksonville provides a conservative anchor, but the suburban growth corridors of northeast Florida are increasingly competitive in a wave environment.

Cory Mills (R)

Central Florida (east Orlando, Daytona Beach). Mills won this after redistricting made it more Republican. The Orlando exurbs are growing fast and the partisan balance could shift over time. Trump carried the district by about 12 pts, and Mills is a combat veteran with a MAGA media profile — he distributed gas masks during the Jan 6 evacuation. The DeSantis-era remap packed Democrats into FL-10, making this safer than the old lines. Volusia County (Daytona) provides a blue-collar Republican base that is unlikely to swing absent a major national wave.

Anna Paulina Luna (R)

St. Petersburg/Pinellas County. Luna holds Charlie Crist's old seat after DeSantis-era redistricting. Pinellas County was once a true swing area — it could become competitive again in the right environment.

Laurel Lee (R)

Tampa eastern suburbs (Brandon, Plant City). Lee is a former Florida Secretary of State and judge. The I-4 corridor suburbs lean red but have grown increasingly diverse and could tighten over time.

Rick Allen (R)

East-central Georgia (Augusta, Statesboro). Allen has held this seat since 2015. Augusta's Fort Eisenhower provides a military base and the district has a significant Black population that keeps it from being safe.

Brad Finstad (R)

Southern Minnesota (Rochester, Mankato). Finstad won a 2022 special election. Mayo Clinic makes Rochester a blue island in otherwise rural red territory. The DFL has a floor here that keeps it "likely" not "safe."

Pete Stauber (R)

Iron Range and Duluth. Stauber represents ancestrally Democratic mining country that has shifted hard toward the GOP. Duluth anchors the Dem base but rural areas have turned solidly red.

Open seat (Ryan Zinke not running)

Western Montana (Missoula, Butte, Helena, Kalispell). Zinke retired in early 2026. Open GOP seat — Missoula and Helena are blue but the rest of the district is solidly Republican. Without Zinke's high name recognition, this could tighten slightly but remains likely R.

Mike Flood (R)

Lincoln/eastern Nebraska. Flood is a former state legislative speaker. Lincoln has a university-driven blue lean but the surrounding farmland keeps this solidly red overall.

Open seat (Mark Amodei not running)

Northern Nevada (Reno, Carson City, rural NV). Amodei is retiring after 15 years. Open GOP seat — Reno's growth has made this less safe than it once was, but the rural areas still anchor it for Republicans.

Jeff Van Drew (R)

South Jersey (Cape May to Salem). Van Drew famously switched from D to R in 2019 over impeachment. The district is blue-collar and has trended Republican, but his party-switch history adds an asterisk.

Nick LaLota (R)

Eastern Long Island (Suffolk County). LaLota is a Navy veteran who won in 2022. Suffolk County has historically leaned Republican and the 2024 redistricting didn't significantly alter the lines.

Andrew Garbarino (R)

South Shore Long Island (Babylon, Islip). Garbarino is a relatively moderate Republican who has won comfortably. Long Island's suburban voters can swing but the district's composition favors the GOP.

David Rouzer (R)

Southeastern NC (Wilmington, Fayetteville suburbs). Rouzer has held this since 2015. The SL 2025-95 map keeps this solidly Republican, though military communities around Fort Liberty add some swing potential.

Open seat (Nancy Mace not running)

Charleston/Lowcountry. Mace left to run for governor. Open GOP seat — Charleston is growing and trending blue but the surrounding Lowcountry provides a solid Republican floor.

Joe Wilson (R)

Columbia suburbs/Midlands. Wilson ("you lie!") has held this seat since 2001. The district includes parts of fast-growing Columbia suburbs that trend purple, but the overall lean is solidly Republican.

Michael Baumgartner (R)

Eastern Washington (Spokane). Baumgartner replaced Cathy McMorris Rodgers who retired. Spokane is growing and diversifying but eastern WA remains red. Trump carried the district by about 14 pts, but Spokane's Gonzaga University and growing healthcare sector have attracted younger, more educated residents who lean Democratic. Baumgartner is a former state senator and Spokane County treasurer who won with 56% in 2024. The wheat country east of Spokane is deep red, but the city itself has elected Democratic mayors, and the right Democrat — especially one with military or agricultural roots — could tighten this significantly in a wave year.

Open seat (Ami Bera not running)

Sacramento suburbs. Bera vacated this seat to run in CA-03 under the new Prop 50 lines. D+14 on the new map — structurally safe. Safe D.

Open seat (Julia Brownley not running)

Ventura County coast. Brownley is retiring after seven terms. D+13 on the Prop 50 lines — structurally safe even as an open seat. Safe D.

Norma Torres (D)

Inland Empire (Ontario, Pomona). D+10 on the Prop 50 lines. Torres has represented this area since 2015 and has deep roots in the Latino community. Safe D.

Open seat (Ken Calvert not running)

Riverside County. Prop 50 made this D+14 — a massive shift from the old lines. Calvert moved to CA-40. Straightforward Dem pickup. Safe D.

Brittany Pettersen (D)

Jefferson County west of Denver (Lakewood, Littleton). D+15 — Pettersen has won easily in her first two races and the suburban Denver base is reliably blue. Safe D.

Rosa DeLauro (D)

New Haven. D+14. DeLauro has served since 1991 and is deeply entrenched in the district. Safe D.

Sarah McBride (D)

At-large seat. D+15. Delaware is reliably blue statewide. McBride is the first openly transgender member of Congress. Safe D.

Bill Foster (D)

Aurora/Joliet suburbs. D+11 on the Dem-drawn gerrymander. Foster is a physicist-turned-congressman who has held this seat since 2012. Safe D.

Nikki Budzinski (D)

Springfield/Champaign (college towns + state capital). D+11 on the Dem-drawn map. Budzinski has won twice and has a strong labor background. Safe D.

Cleo Fields (D)

Court-ordered majority-Black seat (Baton Rouge to Shreveport). D+15. VRA protections make it durably Democratic. Fields previously represented this area in the 1990s. Safe D.

Richard Neal (D)

Western Massachusetts (Springfield, Pittsfield). D+14. Neal is the former Ways & Means chair and a fixture of the district. Safe D.

Bill Keating (D)

South Shore/Cape Cod. D+11. Keating has held this seat since 2011 and has a moderate profile that plays well with the district's independent voters. Safe D.

Melanie Stansbury (D)

Albuquerque. D+13. Stansbury won a 2021 special election and has won comfortably since. Safe D.

Paul Tonko (D)

Albany/Schenectady. D+14. Tonko has held this seat since 2009 and the capital region anchors it solidly in blue territory. Safe D.

Val Hoyle (D)

Eugene/southern Oregon coast. D+12. University of Oregon anchors a solidly blue district. Hoyle succeeded DeFazio in 2022. Safe D.

Andrea Salinas (D)

Salem/Portland southern suburbs. D+11. Oregon's newest district, created in 2020 reapportionment. Salinas is the first Latina to represent Oregon in Congress and has won twice. Safe D.

Chrissy Houlahan (D)

Chester County suburbs of Philadelphia. D+11. Houlahan is an Air Force veteran and engineer who has won four consecutive terms, including 56% in 2024. Chester County has shifted decisively toward Democrats since 2016, and the district's college-educated suburban profile makes this structurally safe. Safe D.

Shomari Figures (D)

New court-ordered majority-minority seat. Figures won easily in 2024 and the VRA protections make this durable, but Alabama GOP will try to erode the lines.

Greg Stanton (D)

Tempe/Mesa suburbs. Stanton is a former Phoenix mayor with a strong local brand. The district has a slight blue lean but Arizona swings are real — Harris carried the district by roughly 7 pts. Stanton's background as Phoenix mayor gives him a crossover appeal rare among Arizona Democrats, and the ASU/Tempe academic community provides a reliable blue anchor. The 2024 independent redistricting kept the lines favorable, but a strong GOP recruit in a bad year could test him.

Open seat (Kevin Kiley not running)

Sacramento suburbs (Folsom, Rancho Cordova). Prop 50 made this D+10 on new lines — a massive shift. Kiley is not running here on the new map. Rep. Ami Bera moved over from neighboring CA-06, bringing incumbency-level name recognition and a strong fundraising operation to a district that is structurally blue. No serious Republican challenger has emerged. Safe D.

Josh Harder (D)

Central Valley (Stockton/Modesto). Harder has held this seat since 2018. The Prop 50 lines make this D+11 — significantly bluer than the old boundaries. Strong incumbent in a favorable district.

Pete Aguilar (D)

Inland Empire (San Bernardino, Redlands). Aguilar is House Democratic Caucus Chair — a strong fundraiser and visible leader. Safe unless the Prop 50 remap creates a surprise — the new lines keep this D+10 with a heavily Latino base in San Bernardino. As House Dem Caucus Chair, Aguilar is third in party leadership and one of the most prominent Latino elected officials in the country. His fundraising network is formidable and his Inland Empire roots run deep.

Mark Takano (D)

Riverside area. Takano has held this seat since 2012 and is well-established. The Prop 50 remap keeps this lean-D but the Inland Empire continues to shift rightward among working-class Latino voters. Harris carried the district by roughly 8 pts on the Prop 50 lines. Takano is the top Democrat on Veterans Affairs and UC Riverside anchors a college-town base, but the logistics industry workers in the IE warehouses have been trending Republican. Takano's seniority and constituent service keep him safe, but this would be a competitive open seat.

Mike Levin (D)

North San Diego coast (Oceanside to Encinitas). Levin has won four times in this purple-ish seat. Climate and veterans issues are his brand. Harris carried the district by roughly 8 pts on the Prop 50 lines, and the Camp Pendleton-adjacent military community and coastal affluent voters create a unique coalition. Levin has never won by less than 4 pts and his constituent service operation is strong, but this remains the kind of Southern California seat Republicans target in good years.

Joe Courtney (D)

Eastern Connecticut (New London, submarine country). Courtney has held this since 2007. Blue-collar roots and defense industry ties — the Electric Boat submarine yard in Groton is the district's economic engine — keep him strong. Harris carried the district by roughly 10 pts, but the eastern Connecticut small towns have a working-class, culturally conservative lean. Courtney is well-funded and deeply entrenched, and his retirement would be the only realistic path for a GOP flip.

Jahana Hayes (D)

Northwest Connecticut (Waterbury, Danbury). Hayes is a former National Teacher of the Year. The district has a rural-suburban mix — Litchfield County is one of the most Republican areas in New England while Waterbury is heavily Democratic. Hayes won her first race in 2018 by 12 pts but nearly lost in 2022 (0.5 pt margin), then won by 4 in 2024. The working-class white voters in the Naugatuck Valley are exactly the demographic that has been shifting right, making this one of the most vulnerable Dem seats in the Northeast.

Kathy Castor (D)

Tampa area. Castor has been safe for years but Florida's rightward drift puts even established Dems on the watchlist. The DeSantis-era remap kept this district centered on Tampa's urban core and inner suburbs, where Harris won by about 9 pts. Castor has held the seat since 2007 and is well-entrenched, but the Tampa Bay region's Cuban American and Venezuelan communities have moved sharply rightward, and Florida's registration advantage has flipped to the GOP for the first time in modern history.

Lois Frankel (D)

West Palm Beach. Frankel is a reliable Dem in South Florida but the region is shifting. Frankel turns 78 in 2026 and retirement rumors persist — an open seat in South Florida's shifting political landscape would be genuinely competitive. Harris carried the district by about 10 pts, but the Palm Beach County corridor has seen growing Republican registration among older Jewish voters and Latin American immigrants. If Frankel runs, she is safe; if she retires, this moves to lean D.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)

Fort Lauderdale/Weston. DWS is a prominent national Dem. South Florida's Hispanic shift is a concern, but this district remains solidly blue for now — Harris carried it by about 14 pts. DWS is a former DNC chair with national fundraising capacity and deep institutional ties in Broward County. The Weston/Davie corridor has a large Venezuelan and Colombian population that has moved rightward, but the Jewish community in Sunrise and Plantation remains a strong Democratic base. Her high national profile cuts both ways — great for fundraising, but a magnet for Republican opposition research.

Sanford Bishop (D)

Southwest Georgia (Albany, Columbus). Bishop is the longest-serving member of the Georgia delegation, in his 17th term, and a member of the Congressional Black Caucus. The district is majority-Black after 2020 redistricting, with VRA protections providing a Democratic floor. Bishop's Blue Dog moderate brand gives him crossover appeal in the rural white portions of the district. He faces a Democratic primary from Danny Glover and Republican Chuck Hand in the general. At 79, age is a factor, but he has filed for reelection and remains the heavy favorite in a D-leaning seat.

Sean Casten (D)

DuPage County suburbs west of Chicago. Casten won in 2018 as part of the suburban revolt. The district has drifted solidly blue under the Dem-drawn gerrymander — Harris carried it by about 13 pts. Casten is a clean-energy entrepreneur who has built a strong suburban brand, winning four consecutive times. The DuPage/western Cook County base is affluent and well-educated, exactly the demographic that has broken from the GOP since 2016. Safe in a midterm unless something fundamentally changes about the suburban realignment.

Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)

Northwest Chicago suburbs (Schaumburg). Krishnamoorthi has won easily but the district has a suburban-Asian demographic mix that keeps it on watchlists nationally. The South Asian American population in the Schaumburg/Hoffman Estates corridor is the largest in the Midwest, and Krishnamoorthi has leveraged that base alongside the Dem-drawn gerrymander that gives him a roughly D+10 lean. His Oversight Committee profile and clean-energy focus resonate in the well-educated suburbs, but Indian American voters nationwide trended slightly rightward in 2024.

Lauren Underwood (D)

Far western Chicago suburbs (Naperville, Kendall County). Underwood is a nurse-turned-congresswoman who has won four times in swing territory. Strong personal brand — she was the youngest Black woman in Congress when first elected. Harris carried the district by about 8 pts on the Dem-drawn gerrymander, but Kendall County is one of the fastest-growing counties in Illinois and its exurban character keeps the Republican base competitive. Underwood's healthcare focus (she was a nurse at HHS under Obama) plays well in the suburbs, and four consecutive wins have cemented her incumbency advantage.

April Delaney (D)

Western Maryland (Frederick to Cumberland). Delaney won this in 2024 — first-term Dem in a district that includes deep-red panhandle territory alongside blue Frederick suburbs. Harris carried the district by roughly 8 pts on the Dem-drawn gerrymander, but Garrett and Allegany counties in the western panhandle are among Maryland's most conservative. Delaney (wife of former Rep. John Delaney) must build her own identity quickly — an open seat on different lines would be competitive, but her husband's donor network gives her a fundraising advantage.

Hillary Scholten (D)

Grand Rapids area. Scholten flipped this former GOP stronghold in 2022. The independent redistricting commission drew favorable lines and she has consolidated the seat. Harris carried the district by about 6 pts, and Grand Rapids — formerly represented by Gerald Ford and Peter Meijer — is the quintessential example of the suburban realignment. The Dutch Reformed community here has deep Republican roots but the city's professional class has moved left on social issues. Scholten, a former immigration attorney, won two consecutive races and has built strong constituent service infrastructure.

Open seat (Angie Craig not running)

Southern Twin Cities suburbs (Eagan, Burnsville). Craig left to run for Senate. Open Dem seat in a purple district — this becomes significantly more competitive without her strong personal brand.

Herb Conaway (D)

Burlington County/South Jersey. Conaway is a first-term Dem who won the seat vacated by Andy Kim (now Senator). Must build his own brand quickly in a district that Harris carried by about 5 pts. Burlington County has a moderate suburban electorate that voted for Larry Hogan types, and the South Jersey Democratic machine (led by George Norcross) provides organizational support. Conaway is a physician and state assemblyman since 1998, but his name recognition is far below Kim's and a serious GOP challenger could make this competitive.

Frank Pallone (D)

Central Jersey shore (Monmouth/Middlesex). Pallone has served since 1988 and chairs Energy & Commerce. Institutional strength but retirement rumors swirl — he is 74 and has been in Congress for 38 years. Harris carried the district by about 10 pts, and the Middlesex County base (New Brunswick, Woodbridge) is reliably blue. If Pallone runs, he is safe; if he retires, the open seat would attract a competitive primary and a serious Republican challenge in the Monmouth County portion of the district.

Open seat (Mikie Sherrill not running)

Morris/Passaic suburbs. Sherrill left to run for governor in 2025. A special election filled the seat. The district is solidly blue (Harris+12) and should remain safe for Democrats even without Sherrill's strong personal brand.

Grace Meng (D)

Queens (Flushing). Large Asian American population. Meng has been safe but the Asian voter shift toward the GOP in 2024 puts this on the radar. Chinese American and Korean American communities in Flushing and Bayside moved noticeably rightward on crime, education, and affirmative action issues. Harris still carried the district by about 20 pts, so this is not genuinely endangered, but the trendlines warrant monitoring and a strong GOP candidate with Asian American community ties could cut Meng's margin significantly.

John Mannion (D)

Syracuse-area seat. Mannion flipped this from Brandon Williams in 2024 after redistricting made the district bluer. Former state senator with strong local roots. Harris carried the district by about 8 pts on the new court-ordered map, which added more of Syracuse's urban core and Onondaga County suburbs. The Micron chip factory investment in Clay is transforming the local economy and driving population growth that trends Democratic. Mannion's moderate profile and teacher background play well in the Syracuse media market.

Janelle Bynum (D)

Portland east suburbs to Bend. Bynum flipped this from Lori Chavez-DeRemer in 2024. First-term Dem in Oregon's most competitive seat — Trump carried this district by about 2 pts even as Bynum won. The Clackamas County suburbs east of Portland anchor the Dem base, but the district stretches into rural Deschutes County (Bend) where Republicans dominate. Chavez-DeRemer's departure to run for governor removes a strong opponent, but any GOP recruit will target this aggressively.

Chris Deluzio (D)

Pittsburgh western suburbs (Beaver, Butler counties). Deluzio is a Navy vet and election security advocate. Trump carried the district by about 4.5 pts in 2024, but Deluzio won by 6 — a 10-pt overperformance that reflects his crossover appeal with union households. Beaver and Butler counties have trended sharply Republican at the presidential level, making this a perennial battleground where Democratic incumbents survive on personal brand and labor endorsements.

Seth Magaziner (D)

Western RI (Cranston, Warwick). Magaziner won narrowly in 2022 and held on in 2024. Rhode Island is blue overall but this seat's white working-class base in Cranston and Warwick has shifted rightward — Trump lost the district by only about 6 pts. Magaziner's background as state treasurer and moderate positioning help him hold crossover voters, but an open seat here would be genuinely competitive.

Suhas Subramanyam (D)

Loudoun County/NoVA. Subramanyam won the seat vacated by Jennifer Wexton. Loudoun County has trended solidly blue — Harris won the district by roughly 14 pts — but Subramanyam is a first-term incumbent who must build name recognition quickly. The NoVA tech corridor and federal workforce provide a reliable Democratic base, and the new independent commission lines keep the district favorable.

Kim Schrier (D)

East of Seattle (Issaquah to Ellensburg). Schrier has won four close races in this suburban-rural crossover district. Harris carried the district by about 6 pts, but Schrier has always run ahead of the presidential ticket through her healthcare-focused brand as a pediatrician. The east side of the Cascades (Kittitas County) is deep red while the Eastside suburbs are blue, creating a true crossover seat where midterm turnout patterns determine the outcome.

Jim Costa (D)

Central Valley seat that Trump carried. Costa has survived tough cycles before but is one of the most vulnerable California Dems — age (he turns 75 in 2027) and district lean are both headwinds. Prop 50 moved this to D+4, which helps, but the Central Valley's Latino electorate has shifted rightward and the agricultural economy creates a different voter profile than coastal California. Costa's seniority on Agriculture keeps him relevant but a retirement would make this a toss-up.

Raul Ruiz (D)

Coachella Valley/Inland Empire district with a large Latino population. Ruiz has deep roots here and has never had a close race, but the Prop 50 remap makes this D+2.5 — tighter than before. The district's desert communities (Palm Springs, Indio) are growing and the Latino electorate here is split between farmworkers in the east and suburban professionals in the west. Ruiz is an emergency physician with strong constituent service, but this is one of several CA seats where redistricting cut into the Democratic cushion.

George Whitesides (D)

Santa Clarita/north LA County. Whitesides flipped this from Mike Garcia in 2024 with 51.3%. First-term Dem in a district that Prop 50 pushes further blue, but first-termers are always tested.

Derek Tran (D)

Orange County (Little Saigon, Garden Grove). Tran flipped this from Michelle Steel in 2024. First-term Vietnamese American Dem in a diverse OC seat — highly vulnerable to a strong GOP challenge.

Dave Min (D)

Coastal Orange County (Huntington Beach to Laguna). Min won this in 2024, succeeding Katie Porter. First-term Dem in a district that has trended blue — Harris won by about 4 pts — but OC remains volatile in lower-turnout midterms. Min is a former state senator and law professor who won with 52.9%. Huntington Beach and Costa Mesa provide a Republican base, while Irvine and the coast lean Democratic. Without Porter's fundraising juggernaut, Min must build his own donor base quickly.

Darren Soto (D)

Central Florida seat covering Kissimmee and parts of Orlando. Growing Puerto Rican population is the Democratic base, but Florida has trended red and Soto never wins comfortably.

Jared Moskowitz (D)

Broward/Palm Beach district. Moskowitz is a strong fundraiser and a combative media presence, but the DeSantis-era map makes this tighter than the old seat. South Florida continues to swing.

Eric Sorensen (D)

Peoria-to-Quad Cities swing district. Sorensen won a close race in 2022 and held on in 2024, but this remains one of the most rural-leaning Dem-held seats in the Midwest. Trump carried the district by roughly 7 pts in 2024, meaning Sorensen is running 10+ pts ahead of the top of the ticket through his local TV meteorologist background. The Dem-drawn map helps, but the Peoria-Quad Cities I-74 corridor is the kind of ancestrally Democratic terrain that has been slipping away.

Frank Mrvan (D)

Northwest Indiana (Gary, Hammond). Ancestrally Democratic steel country that has drifted right. Jennifer-Ruth Green (2022 nominee, got 47%) is running again. Every cycle gets tighter.

Sharice Davids (D)

Kansas City suburbs. Davids has won four times now and is a proven commodity, but the district still leans slightly right on the presidential level. Abortion politics continue to help Dems in Kansas.

Dina Titus (D)

Downtown Las Vegas. Titus faces State Sen. Carrie Buck (R), who outraised her in Q4. The district has tightened as Hispanic voters shift. Her margins have shrunk each cycle.

Steven Horsford (D)

North Las Vegas and rural Nevada. Horsford has a lock on the Democratic base but the exurban growth areas are trending Republican. Horsford is CBC chair and a strong fundraiser who won by 4 pts in 2024 despite Trump carrying the district by about 2 pts. The fast-growing exurbs in Nye County and Pahrump are deep red, while North Las Vegas's Black and Latino voters anchor the Democratic base. Nevada's notoriously low midterm turnout could create problems if Dem base voters stay home.

Open seat (Chris Pappas not running)

Eastern NH including Manchester. Pappas left to run for Senate (Shaheen retiring). Open seat with a crowded field on both sides — Maura Sullivan and Stefany Shaheen lead the Dem primary.

Maggie Goodlander (D)

Western NH including Concord and Nashua suburbs. Goodlander won in 2024 after Kuster retired. She is a former DOJ national security advisor and is married to Jake Sullivan. First-term incumbent building her brand in a lean-D district.

Josh Gottheimer (D)

North Jersey suburbs. Gottheimer is a prolific fundraiser and one of the most centrist House Dems. He has been rumored for a gubernatorial bid; if he stays, he is a strong incumbent.

Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)

Northern NM including Santa Fe and tribal lands. State Rep. Martin Zamora (R) edged out Fernandez in Q3 fundraising ($247K vs $237K) — a credible challenger in a district where rural Latino voters have shifted right.

Laura Gillen (D)

Nassau County, Long Island. Gillen flipped this seat in 2024 after Santos was expelled. First-term Dem in traditionally GOP suburban territory — classic frontline seat.

Pat Ryan (D)

Mid-Hudson Valley (Poughkeepsie, Kingston). Ryan won a special election on abortion and has held on since. Rural-suburban mix that swings hard with the national mood — Trump carried the district by about 2 pts in 2024, yet Ryan won by 6 through his Army veteran brand and aggressive campaigning on reproductive rights. The Ulster/Dutchess County corridor has ancestrally Democratic small towns alongside affluent second-home communities, creating a volatile electorate where turnout swings determine outcomes.

Josh Riley (D)

Upstate NY (Ithaca to Binghamton). Riley flipped this in 2024 after a close loss in 2022. First-term Dem in a rural-leaning seat — the kind of district that snaps back in non-presidential years. Trump carried it by roughly 8 pts in 2024, but Riley won by 3 through an economic populist message focused on corporate price gouging and student debt. Cornell University in Ithaca anchors the blue base, while Broome County (Binghamton) is ancestrally Democratic factory country that has been shifting red. Riley is a former Biden and Schumer staffer with strong fundraising, but holding this in a midterm requires running well ahead of the national ticket.

Emilia Sykes (D)

Akron-area seat. Sykes benefits from a strong local political family name and the district's blue-collar Democratic roots, but Ohio's rightward drift makes this a perennial target. Harris carried the district by about 12 pts, and Akron's tire/rubber industry heritage and Summit County's union base provide a reliable Democratic foundation. Sykes's father was a longtime state senator, giving her deep institutional roots. The bipartisan commission lines are friendlier than the old gerrymander, but suburban Portage County is the swing terrain that could tighten the race in a bad national environment for Democrats.

Eugene Vindman (D)

Northern Virginia exurbs (Spotsylvania, Fredericksburg). Vindman won on the strength of his national profile and anti-Trump brand. First-term Dem in a district where Harris won by about 3 pts — a narrow margin that reflects the exurban nature of the I-95 corridor south of NoVA. Vindman's twin brother Alexander was the key witness in Trump's first impeachment, giving Eugene instant national name recognition and fundraising capacity. The Spotsylvania/Stafford County growth corridor is exactly the Sun Belt-adjacent suburban terrain where Democrats have made gains since 2016, but Vindman must transition from celebrity candidate to effective constituent service representative to hold long-term.

John Duarte (R)

Central Valley (Merced/Turlock). Duarte won by 564 votes in 2022 and held on narrowly in 2024. The Prop 50 lines make this essentially even (D+0.4) — a true toss-up. Duarte has proven he can win in hostile territory but has no margin for error.

Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)

Flint/Saginaw area. McDonald Rivet won the open seat in 2024 after Dan Kildee retired. First-term Dem in a working-class district where Trump won by 3 pts in 2024. UAW and building trades unions are the backbone of the Democratic coalition here, but the Saginaw Bay region has been trending red for a decade. McDonald Rivet's state senate background and labor endorsements give her a fighting chance to hold.

Susie Lee (D)

Henderson/southwest Las Vegas suburbs. Lee has held this seat since 2018 and won re-election in 2024. Harris carried the district by about 6 pts, and Lee has built a strong suburban coalition anchored by Henderson's rapid growth. The district's mix of college-educated professionals and Latino voters makes it a bellwether for Nevada's political direction, but Lee's four wins have made her increasingly difficult to dislodge.

Nellie Pou (D)

Bergen County/Passaic. Pou won Pascrell's old seat in 2024 with just 50.6% — the district voted for Trump by 1 pt. First-term Dem in rapidly rightward-shifting North Jersey, where the large Korean American and Latino populations have trended Republican. Pou is a longtime state senator who inherited Bill Pascrell's machine but lacks his personal vote. Prempeh, a Ghanaian American Navy vet, got 49.4% in 2024 and is the clear GOP frontrunner — this is one of the most vulnerable Dem-held seats in the Northeast.

Tom Suozzi (D)

North Shore Long Island (the Santos seat). Suozzi won the special and held on in 2024, but this remains a Republican-leaning district that Dems can only hold with a strong candidate.

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)

Southwest Washington (Vancouver, rural timber country). Gluesenkamp Perez is a blue-collar Democrat who won by 3.8 pts in 2024 despite Trump carrying the district. Her auto-shop brand is unique but the district leans red.

Henry Cuellar (D)

Laredo/South Texas border. Cuellar was indicted on federal bribery charges in May 2024 but pardoned by Trump in December 2025 and is running for reelection. The PlanC2333 remap shifted the district to roughly Trump+10, and Trump has endorsed GOP challenger Tano Tijerina, but Webb County (Laredo) remains the population anchor and is overwhelmingly Democratic. Cuellar has held this seat since 2005 and has deep roots in the region. Safe D.