Lehigh Valley's swing identity has made it a presidential bellwether
Once reliably blue owing to its steel-and-manufacturing labor base, the Lehigh Valley has shifted markedly in recent cycles, with its large and growing Latino population now a closely watched variable in statewide Pennsylvania contests.
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lehigh | 379K | D+2.7 | 96,317 | 91,207 | 189,810 | 10.2% |
| Lehigh | 359K | D+2.7 | 96,317 | 91,207 | 189,810 | 10.2% |
| Lehigh | 337K | D+2.7 | 96,317 | 91,207 | 189,810 | 10.2% |
| Northampton | 319K | R+1.8 | 86,655 | 89,817 | 178,215 | 9.6% |
| Lehigh | 312K | D+2.7 | 96,317 | 91,207 | 189,810 | 10.2% |
| Northampton | 301K | R+1.8 | 86,655 | 89,817 | 178,215 | 9.6% |
| Northampton | 294K | R+1.8 | 86,655 | 89,817 | 178,215 | 9.6% |
| Northampton | 267K | R+1.8 | 86,655 | 89,817 | 178,215 | 9.6% |
| Warren | 111K | R+20.7 | 23,318 | 35,772 | 60,150 | 3.2% |
| Warren | 110K | R+20.7 | 23,318 | 35,772 | 60,150 | 3.2% |
| Warren | 107K | R+20.7 | 23,318 | 35,772 | 60,150 | 3.2% |
| Warren | 102K | R+20.7 | 23,318 | 35,772 | 60,150 | 3.2% |
| Carbon | 65K | R+34.8 | 11,394 | 23,708 | 35,395 | 1.9% |
| Carbon | 64K | R+34.8 | 11,394 | 23,708 | 35,395 | 1.9% |
| Carbon | 63K | R+34.8 | 11,394 | 23,708 | 35,395 | 1.9% |
| Carbon | 59K | R+34.8 | 11,394 | 23,708 | 35,395 | 1.9% |
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 77.7% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 13.6% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 4.7% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.5% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 1.4% | 0.9% |
Multiracial / Other | 1.3% | 4.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +26.3pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.4% | 46.0% | — | — | |
| 11.8% | 29.5% | — | — | |
| 6.1% | 15.2% | — | — | |
| 3.2% | 7.9% | — | — | |
| 0.4% | 1.0% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.4% | 0.9% | — | — |
| 0.2% | 0.4% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 60.0% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ metro area? 3,247,845 residents across 16 counties.
27% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 6pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs Senate | R+4.9 | R+3.4 | 1.5pp |