Quad Cities metro spans two states and a persistent swing-county tradition
Straddling the Mississippi River across Iowa and Illinois, this metro has tracked closely with national presidential margins for decades, making it a reliable bellwether for Midwestern working-class voter shifts.
| County | Pop. | Margin | Dem | Rep | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott | 175K | R+3.9 | 42,479 | 45,976 | 90,133 | 12.0% |
| Scott | 171K | R+3.9 | 42,479 | 45,976 | 90,133 | 12.0% |
| Scott | 163K | R+3.9 | 42,479 | 45,976 | 90,133 | 12.0% |
| Scott | 159K | R+3.9 | 42,479 | 45,976 | 90,133 | 12.0% |
| Rock Island | 149K | D+9.6 | 34,126 | 28,061 | 63,458 | 8.5% |
| Rock Island | 147K | D+9.6 | 34,126 | 28,061 | 63,458 | 8.5% |
| Rock Island | 147K | D+9.6 | 34,126 | 28,061 | 63,458 | 8.5% |
| Rock Island | 143K | D+9.6 | 34,126 | 28,061 | 63,458 | 8.5% |
| Henry | 51K | R+24.4 | 9,226 | 15,359 | 25,092 | 3.4% |
| Henry | 50K | R+24.4 | 9,226 | 15,359 | 25,092 | 3.4% |
| Henry | 50K | R+24.4 | 9,226 | 15,359 | 25,092 | 3.4% |
| Henry | 49K | R+24.4 | 9,226 | 15,359 | 25,092 | 3.4% |
| Mercer | 17K | R+27.1 | 2,950 | 5,215 | 8,346 | 1.1% |
| Mercer | 16K | R+27.1 | 2,950 | 5,215 | 8,346 | 1.1% |
| Mercer | 16K | R+27.1 | 2,950 | 5,215 | 8,346 | 1.1% |
| Mercer | 15K | R+27.1 | 2,950 | 5,215 | 8,346 | 1.1% |
| Group | Local | National |
|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 81.3% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(15) | 7.6% | 19.3% |
▶Black / African American(11) | 6.7% | 12.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 2.3% | 4.0% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.8% | 6.0% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.3% | 0.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(7) | 0.2% | 0.9% |
Catholic-Evangelical edge: +8.1pp (vs national 4.5pp). A strongly Catholic-leaning religious profile, which nationally correlates with Democratic-leaning urban and suburban communities.
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents | US Pop | US Adherents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.2% | 35.6% | — | — | |
| 10.7% | 28.7% | — | — | |
| 8.6% | 23.0% | — | — | |
| 2.6% | 7.0% | — | — | |
| 1.9% | 5.2% | — | — | |
LDS (Mormon) | 0.8% | 2.1% | — | — |
| 0.1% | 0.4% | — | — | |
Non-religiousPopulation | 62.8% | — | — | — |
Who lives in the Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL metro area? 1,516,453 residents across 16 counties.
25% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 8pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate vs Governor | R+1.6 | R+7.0 | 5.4pp |